Too much guessing indeed. Rather try such an approach:

Shift Hours: Start by estimating the average number of working hours for an assistant nurse in Sweden, typically an 8-hour shift.

Shift Capacity: Consider the number of patients an assistant nurse can attend to during one hour of their shift, which may vary depending on the healthcare setting.

Utilization: Take into account the average utilization rate based on factors like location, time of day, and healthcare service demand.

Working Days: Assume the number of working days in a year for an assistant nurse, typically around 220 working days a year.

Patients Per Year: Estimate the average number of patients an assistant nurse deals with in a year. This depends on the type of healthcare facility and the patient turnover. For example, in a hospital, it might be higher compared to a nursing home. You can take the population and # of caregiving visits as a starting point for your estimations. 

Estimate: Calculate the estimated number of assistant nurses in Sweden by multiplying the number of shift hours per day by the shift capacity, adjusting for utilization, and then multiply by the working days in a year. Further, multiply this by the estimated number of patients an assistant nurse handles in a year.

Hi there,

All of your numbers after # of men/women are guessing.

Market sizing is not about guessing, but rather estimating. You need to break this down in a way that leverages what you know about the world.

All you've done here is randomly come up with numbers - that's a fail!

Here are 3 cases where I physically walk you through the answer in video format:

https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/candidate-led-usual-style/intermediate/market-sizing-with-solution-coffee-shop-revenue-318

https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/candidate-led-usual-style/beginner/market-sizing-with-solution-number-of-taxis-317

https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/candidate-led-usual-style/advanced/market-sizing-with-solution-number-of-internet-users-319

How to approach market sizing

It's very simple: Do the approach the is the easiest for you given the question.

Are they asking you to estimate something where you don't even know where to begin from the top (maybe you have 0 clue as to the market size of the industry, the GDP of that country, etc. etc.)? Then do bottom-up!

Alternatively, does it seem impossible to do a realistic from-the-ground-up estimation of something (perhaps it requires just far too many steps and assumptions)? Then do top-down!

Fundamentally, you need to take the approach that just makes the most sense in that circumstance. Quickly think about the key assumptions / numbers required and whether you 1) Know them or 2) Can reasonably estimate them. If you can, go ahead!

An Example

He's a Q&A for a great market sizing question here asking to estimate # of electric charging stations in a city in 10 years:

https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-would-you-solve-this-market-sizing-question-from-roland-berger-7631

This one could be answered top-down (as I did) by estimating population of the city, # of drivers/ cars, etc. etc.

OR, it could be answered bottom-up by estimating # of stations you see per block (or # of gas/petrol tanks), % increase this might be over time (or # of EV stations that would be needed per gas tank given EV stations take 10 times as long), and # of blocks you'd estimate the city to have.

Hi there!

I'd recommend to always propose a solution yourself and then share it with us for feedback. You're going to get more out of the exercise this way. 

To give you some upfront guidance, starting from the population is a top-down way of solving the question. 

What you then need to do is to apply filters that enable you to shave off irrelevant portions of the population (e.g., people who are not within the age range to be working <18 and >65) until you get to your target population. 

You can also try to experiment with bottom-up methodologies for sizing, which are also a great way of sanity checking your initial, top-down approach.

Best,

Cristian

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Hi there,

Agree with the rest that your numbers are quite arbitrary and the distinction between men and women is unnecessary. That's because you're leading with the supply side of things, when you should be leading with the demand side.

Supply generally follows demand, so your approach should be based on the need for nurses, which in return is based on people in need of care. This must be matched with an assumption of how many nurses are needed to care for hospitalized people (or in their homes), which other coaches have outlined.

The above approach is much more tangible and related to actual observations you made in your life.

Hope this helps a bit. Best of luck!

Moritz