How would you solve this market sizing question from Roland Berger?

Market sizing Roland Berger
New answer on Aug 17, 2020
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Anonymous A asked on Aug 17, 2020

Hi all,

Recently a friend of mine got interviews with Roland Berger in SEA first round and got this question:

How would you estimate the number of electronic charging station (For electric car vehicle) in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam in the next 10 years? (You can pick any city you like for your preference)

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Ian
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updated an answer on Aug 17, 2020
MBB | 100% personal interview success rate (8/8) and 95% candidate success rate | Personalized interview prep

Hi there,

This is a great question as it's really testing your ability to make reasonable assumptions about the world, lacking any real data.

By # of Electric Cars

  1. Population of Ho Chi Minh - Around 8 million?
  2. # of adults - Around 5-6 million
  3. # of cars per person - around .5 (probably 1 per household)
  4. % of electric vehicles expected in 10 years -
    1. highly variable based on country.
    2. While Vietnam is a developing country (points against), they are also command-and-control communist and are capable of big change (points for).
    3. The global rate of EV uptake will probably equate to 1% of the global fleet each year (obviously less now, more later). So, perhaps 10% globally? Let's place vietnam around there
  5. ​Big consideration: Charging stations are a leading investment to electric cars. So, you need capacity there before demand hits. We will probably need around 1 charging station per vehicle (docking at night). And this would need to lead by a few years. So, we might need charging stations for 15% of the Vietnamese car fleet (instead of 10%)
  6. Answer = 375,000 - 450,000 charging stations:
    1. (5 - 6 million people) X (.5 cars per person) X (15%)

(edited)

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Anonymous A on Aug 17, 2020

Thank you for your answer. The last line: (2.5 - 3millions cars) X (.5) X (15%) could you clarify what is that 0.5 ? I thought it would be 5m people * 0.5 car per person * 15%?

Ian on Aug 17, 2020

Great catch! I've updated my answer. And, now that I have, the # does seem high, so it would be worth some strong caveats and re-evaluation of assumptions :)

Anonymous A on Aug 17, 2020

The logic makes perfect sense. The assumption I would change is the number of car per household. We use motorbike predominantly so i would guess 0.1-0.2 car per household now and could increase by 20-30% over next 10 years. . so the actual charging station would be much lower .

Ian gave the best answer

Ian

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