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Anonymous A
on Oct 07, 2024
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

market sizing

hello:)

 

would lvoe to get your ideas on how to structure answers to the following market size questions? mainly questions ı do not have that much knowledge about therefore, struggle with structuring it. 

- e-commerce market size in the u.s
- emissions in Europe

-Pipeline length (oil and gas) in Europe

-used shoe market size uS
 

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Top answer
Hagen
Coach
edited on Oct 08, 2024
#1 recommended coach | >95% success rate | 8+ years consulting, 8+ years coaching and 7+ years interviewing experience

Hi there,

I would be happy to share my thoughts on your question:

  • First of all, can you please provide a proposal that I can review?
  • Moreover, please keep in mind that except for Bain in the UK and few smaller consulting firms, most consulting firms have not used standalone market size estimations for a long time, contrary to the false statement of others. While this does not mean it never happens, this type of case study question is typically not be very meaningful for both the candidate and interviewer, as only a few skills are being tested.
  • That being said, simpler market size estimations may still be a part of a case study, for instance when estimating the revenues of the client is required.

If you would like a more detailed discussion on how to best prepare for your upcoming interviews, please don't hesitate to contact me directly.

Best,

Hagen

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Alessa
Coach
on Oct 07, 2024
xMcKinsey & Company | xBCG | +200 individual & group coachings | feel free to schedule a 15 min intro call for free

Hey! 

For your market sizing ideas mentioned, I would look at the following factors:

  1. E-Comm: estimate total U.S. retail sales & apply the % of sales happening online. Also, I would use known data like average spend per online shopper and number of shoppers to guide your estimate.
     
  2. Emissions: Break it down by sector (transport, industry, agriculture), using available data on CO2 emissions. Estimate each sector's share to get an overall figure.
     
  3. Pipeline: Try focusing on key oil and gas-producing countries, using data on major pipelines, then estimate the total length by summing up prominent pipeline projects.
     
  4. Used Shoes: I would look at the total footwear market, and estimate the second-hand percentage, factoring in trends from online resale platforms and typical resale behavior.

That's what I just came up with some brainstorming. Hope this gives you a first idea! :) Of course, there are also different approaches on how to get reasonable numbers. 

BR Alesa :)

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Fathu
Coach
edited on Oct 10, 2024
Ex-BCG Europe/ME/Africa | 50+ offers from MBB, Kearney, OW | Personalized coaching | Free 15-min intro call

Hello there, 

Before suggesting any solutions to the questions, I would like to highlight a couple of points pertinent to market sizing exercises:

  • The logic behind your approach is the most important element your interviewer is assessing
  • Always look out for nuances that show business awareness of the problem at hand (e.g., in estimating ecommerce market size, differentiating between frequency of online shopping by age and / or gender shows additional awareness)
  • Assumptions do not need to be perfect but they need to be sound and based on justifiable rationale
  • Sense-check your answer to figure out how reasonable it is

Proposed responses to questions:

  1. Ecommerce US market size: Estimate based on population and purchases per individual. Include nuance based on age/gender/income to show situational awareness
  2. Europe emissions: For individuals, estimate based on emissions per individual and population across travel, home, food, etc. For companies, identify major emitting sectors, develop a factor of comparison across sectors, make an assumption of the emission of the base sector (or request from the interviewer). Add individuals' emissions to companies'
  3. Europe pipeline length: Estimate required pipeline length for a baseline reference area. Multiply that to scale over the whole area of Europe. Include nuance based on urban vs rural split with urban areas having more pipelines due to additional supply requirements. You may also differentiate countries
  4. US used shoe market size: Estimate based on population and amount spent on shoes, then assume a percentage for used shoes. Differentiate between client segments based on age and income levels since younger/less affluent are more likely to buy used shoes

Feel free to reach out if you would like to discuss any of the above points further.

Best,

Fathu 

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Florian
Coach
edited on Oct 08, 2024
1400 5-star reviews across platforms | 600+ offers | Highest-rated case book on Amazon | Uni lecturer in US, Asia, EU

Hi there,

Here are a few pointers:

US e-commerce market: Start by estimating total retail sales with a population-based approach then apply assumptions about e-commerce’s share and expected growth (likely above GDP growth).

Emissions in Europe: This is by far the trickiest one and the AI-assisted answer in this thread does not provide an answer here. If the question is to calculate emissions in Europe, then using the emissions as an input value is not valid...I would potentially approach it from a population-based perspective or try to estimate it as a share of global GPD (which could be a far-distance proxy) or a share of global emissions (if the interviewer has the data which they likely do not - see the previous point).

Pipeline length in Europe: Estimate the general size of the continent, define average length of pipeline by running a few distance calculations across Europe, assume number of pipelines and multiply.

Used shoe market size in the U.S.: A population-based approach would work here either bottom-up or top-down. Calculate the total shoe market and take smaller percentage as used.

One thing to note is that you need a strong approach first, e.g.:

1. Define the scope of the question

2. Take time to think about your approach

3. Present the approach to the interviewer

4. Ask for any available data to perform the calculations

5. For data points that are missing, come up with assumptions and defend them

6. Calculate

7. Evaluate the outcome (too high/low? feasible? missed something? how can the result be improved?)

Contrary to what Hagen posted here, market sizing is still part of many firms' evaluation, so much so that for instance Bain is conducting one full 40-50 minute interview just on market sizing in certain regions...

Cheers,

Florian

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Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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