What would be a structured way to discuss this question? Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Coronavirus' economic impact on China
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Hi, guess this could help structure an approach ! My take is we could simply strcuture in Bain's way - human cost & economic cost.
- Economic cost - Short to Medium Term Impact
- Human cost - Long term impact (guess one could show creativity here)
What we now know from the open sources is that China is experiencing already unforeseen crisis and recession. In Jan-Feb 2020 its domestic consumption has reduced by 20% and its industrial output reduced by 13% comparing to Jan-Feb 2019!
The whole global economy will be hit by the virus this year because similar effects will be experienced by all the countries. Leisure, entertainment and travel sectors (hotels, airlines, restaurants, etc. – which corresponds for approx.. 5% of the global GDP) were hit first, but the whole global value chain is now breaking down.
Consequently, the governments of most countries will start taking massive actions to ease the effects of global recession. The interest rates have been now lowered to 0%, quantitative easing will be introduced again shortly. I even assume that governments will increase national debts and support the companies saving them from the wave of bancruptcies.
In order to quantify the impact of COVID on China (or any other country), I would analyze the following buckets:
- Economic impact (economy slow down, forced demand decrease, shortage of supply, lower productivity)
- Social impact (increased medical costs, number of fatalities, other social impacts of people being locked for few months)
- Long-term impact (global recession, global ties with/to other countries been broken)
I hope it helps – keep safe and stay healthy!
This prompt is too wide, complex, unstructured and multi-topic to be asked in an MBB interview. The prompts you can expect are far more structured.
Hope it helps!
Interesting - what would be your suggestion?