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Bayer Case: Entering the US antidepressant market

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  • Our client is the US head of Bayer’s Pharmaceuticals division
  • In about 7 months’ time (beginning of 2020) the division expects to receive FDA approval to launch a tricyclic anti-depressant drug. While this apparently good news, the US Pharma organization is concerned over the market potential for this drug and its ability to reach the key prescribers in this therapeutic area

Question 1

In two of the three options Bayer keeps the drug while one is selling it, which factors would you assess whether to keep the drug or to sell it?

Question 2

Determine EBITDA in 2020 for launch alone option. 

  1. Calculate value of Bayer market share
  2. Calculate EBITDA
    • Assume: Price p. package of drug: USD 120

Question 3

Please compare the three proposed options (launched alone; co-marketed with a partner and solid, licensed out or swapped) based on the following factors

  1. Market attractiveness
  2. Sales considerations
  3. Cost considerations

and make a final recommendation as to what Bayer should do.

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