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Help with a market sizing question: How many assistant nurses are there in Sweden?

market size Market sizing
New answer on Oct 17, 2023
5 Answers
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Anonymous A asked on Oct 16, 2023

How many assistant nurses are there in Sweden? 

Population in Sweden: 10 M 
 

This is my suggested approach, but I am not sure if this is a suitable approach:

My approach:

Population: 10 M
Average life expectancy: 80 years 
Average number of people in each age group: 125 000
Age that could be assistant nurse (20-70): 50 age groups  
People in the age of (20-70): 50 * 125 000 = 6.25M
Percentage men: 50%
Percentage women: 50%
Number of men: 3.125 M
Number of women: 3.125M 
Percentage that study assistant nursing of men: 1.5%
Percentage that study assistant nursing of women: 3% 
Number of men that studies assistant nursing: 46 875
Number of women that studies assistant nursing: 93 750
Percentage of men and women assistant nurses graduating:  90%
Number of men that graduated assistant nursing: 42 187.5
Number of women that graduated assistant nursing: 84 375
Number of assistant nurses: 126 565.5
 

I need help with how to solve the problem and the approach to it. 


Thank you in advance!

 

(edited)

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Raj
Expert
Content Creator
replied on Oct 17, 2023
FREE 15MIN CONSULTATION | #1 Strategy& / OW coach | >70 5* reviews |90% offers ⇨ prep-success.super.site | MENA, DE, UK

Here's a suggested approach:

Define the key variables:

  • Population: The population in Sweden is 10 million.
  • Age range for assistant nurses: Determine the age range for individuals who typically work as assistant nurses.

Calculate the potential pool of assistant nurses:

  • Determine the number of age groups within the specified range.
  • Estimate the average number of people in each age group.
  • Multiply the number of age groups by the average number of people in each group to get an estimate of the potential pool of individuals who could work as assistant nurses.

Consider gender distribution:

  • Determine the percentage of men and women in the potential pool of assistant nurses.
  • Multiply the total number of people in the potential pool by the respective gender percentages to estimate the number of men and women.

Account for education and graduation rates:

  • Determine the percentage of men and women in the potential pool who study assistant nursing.
  • Multiply the number of men and women in the potential pool by the respective study percentages to estimate the number of men and women studying assistant nursing.
  • Apply a graduation rate percentage to estimate the number of men and women who successfully graduate as assistant nurses.

Calculate the total number of assistant nurses:

  • Sum the number of men and women who have graduated as assistant nurses to get an estimate of the total number of assistant nurses in Sweden.

Remember to validate your estimates with available data or industry benchmarks to ensure reasonableness. Good luck with your analysis!

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Frederic
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replied on Oct 17, 2023
ex Jr. Partner McKinsey |Senior Interviewer| Real Feedback & Free Homework between sessions|Harvard Coach|10+ Experience

Too much guessing indeed. Rather try such an approach:

Shift Hours: Start by estimating the average number of working hours for an assistant nurse in Sweden, typically an 8-hour shift.

Shift Capacity: Consider the number of patients an assistant nurse can attend to during one hour of their shift, which may vary depending on the healthcare setting.

Utilization: Take into account the average utilization rate based on factors like location, time of day, and healthcare service demand.

Working Days: Assume the number of working days in a year for an assistant nurse, typically around 220 working days a year.

Patients Per Year: Estimate the average number of patients an assistant nurse deals with in a year. This depends on the type of healthcare facility and the patient turnover. For example, in a hospital, it might be higher compared to a nursing home. You can take the population and # of caregiving visits as a starting point for your estimations. 

Estimate: Calculate the estimated number of assistant nurses in Sweden by multiplying the number of shift hours per day by the shift capacity, adjusting for utilization, and then multiply by the working days in a year. Further, multiply this by the estimated number of patients an assistant nurse handles in a year.

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Anonymous on Oct 17, 2023

Thank you! This was very helpful! Then my estimations would be: Number of patients / assistant nurse / day: - Number of working hours for a nurse: 8h - Number of patients / h (daytime): 2 patients / h - Number of patients / h (night time): 1 patient/h - Number of patients / day (daytime): 2*8 = 16 patients / day - Number of patients/day (night time): 1*8 = 8 patients/day - Utilization rate daytime = 80% - Utilization rate at night = 60% - Number of patients / day = (16*0.8)+(8*0.6) = 17.6 - I round up to 20 patients / day Number of sick (elderly and people with illnesses) Population: 10M Average lifespan: 80 years Number of people per age group: 125,000 Number of elderly people (61-80) = 125,000 * 20 = 2.5M Percentage who are sick of the elderly (nursing homes) = 40% Number of elderly patients = 1M Percentage who have chronic diseases, disability = 10% of the population = 1M Number of sick = 2M Number of assistant nurses = 2M / 20 = 100,000 assistant nurses

(edited)

Ian
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Content Creator
replied on Oct 17, 2023
#1 BCG coach | MBB | Tier 2 | Digital, Tech, Platinion | 100% personal success rate (8/8) | 95% candidate success rate

Hi there,

All of your numbers after # of men/women are guessing.

Market sizing is not about guessing, but rather estimating. You need to break this down in a way that leverages what you know about the world.

All you've done here is randomly come up with numbers - that's a fail!

Here are 3 cases where I physically walk you through the answer in video format:

https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/candidate-led-usual-style/intermediate/market-sizing-with-solution-coffee-shop-revenue-318

https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/candidate-led-usual-style/beginner/market-sizing-with-solution-number-of-taxis-317

https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/candidate-led-usual-style/advanced/market-sizing-with-solution-number-of-internet-users-319

 

 

How to approach market sizing

It's very simple: Do the approach the is the easiest for you given the question.

Are they asking you to estimate something where you don't even know where to begin from the top (maybe you have 0 clue as to the market size of the industry, the GDP of that country, etc. etc.)? Then do bottom-up!

Alternatively, does it seem impossible to do a realistic from-the-ground-up estimation of something (perhaps it requires just far too many steps and assumptions)? Then do top-down!

Fundamentally, you need to take the approach that just makes the most sense in that circumstance. Quickly think about the key assumptions / numbers required and whether you 1) Know them or 2) Can reasonably estimate them. If you can, go ahead!

An Example

He's a Q&A for a great market sizing question here asking to estimate # of electric charging stations in a city in 10 years:

https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-would-you-solve-this-market-sizing-question-from-roland-berger-7631

This one could be answered top-down (as I did) by estimating population of the city, # of drivers/ cars, etc. etc.

OR, it could be answered bottom-up by estimating # of stations you see per block (or # of gas/petrol tanks), % increase this might be over time (or # of EV stations that would be needed per gas tank given EV stations take 10 times as long), and # of blocks you'd estimate the city to have.

 

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Cristian
Expert
Content Creator
replied on Oct 16, 2023
#1 rated MBB & McKinsey Coach

Hi there!

I'd recommend to always propose a solution yourself and then share it with us for feedback. You're going to get more out of the exercise this way. 

To give you some upfront guidance, starting from the population is a top-down way of solving the question. 

What you then need to do is to apply filters that enable you to shave off irrelevant portions of the population (e.g., people who are not within the age range to be working <18 and >65) until you get to your target population. 

You can also try to experiment with bottom-up methodologies for sizing, which are also a great way of sanity checking your initial, top-down approach.

Best,

Cristian

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Moritz
Expert
Content Creator
replied on Oct 17, 2023
ex-McKinsey EM & Interviewer | 7/8 offer rate for 4+ sessions | 90min sessions with FREE exercises & videos

Hi there,

Agree with the rest that your numbers are quite arbitrary and the distinction between men and women is unnecessary. That's because you're leading with the supply side of things, when you should be leading with the demand side.

Supply generally follows demand, so your approach should be based on the need for nurses, which in return is based on people in need of care. This must be matched with an assumption of how many nurses are needed to care for hospitalized people (or in their homes), which other coaches have outlined.

The above approach is much more tangible and related to actual observations you made in your life.

Hope this helps a bit. Best of luck!

Moritz

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Raj gave the best answer

Raj

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