Avez-vous une idée de comment procéder à ce Market Sizing ?
Selon les chiffres officiels, on sait qu'il y a environ 1 M de véhicules électriques en France et environ 1 borne pour 10 voitures.
(editiert)
Sizing : Nombre de bornes de recharge pour voitures électriques en France
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Oui, je sais le faire. Mais, il vaut mieux que vous le fassiez vous-même. Peu importe que on peut rechercher le chiffre. Le but est qu’on montre la capacité d’organiser, de décomposer, et de estimer une problème effectivement.
Here's is a previous Q&A on this exact problem: https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-to-deal-with-b2bb2c-in-market-sizing-for-instance-electric-car-market-8747
An Approach for YOUR problem in Ho Chi Minh (but try it on your own first):
By # of Electric Cars
- Population of Ho Chi Minh - Around 8 million?
- # of adults - Around 5-6 million
- # of cars per person - around .5 (probably 1 per household)
- % of electric vehicles expected in 10 years -
- highly variable based on country.
- While Vietnam is a developing country (points against), they are also command-and-control communist and are capable of big change (points for).
- The global rate of EV uptake will probably equate to 1% of the global fleet each year (obviously less now, more later). So, perhaps 10% globally? Let's place vietnam around there
- Big consideration: Charging stations are a leading investment to electric cars. So, you need capacity there before demand hits. We will probably need around 1 charging station per vehicle (docking at night). And this would need to lead by a few years. So, we might need charging stations for 15% of the Vietnamese car fleet (instead of 10%)
- Answer = 375,000 - 450,000 charging stations:
- (5 - 6 million people) X (.5 cars per person) X (15%)
How to Market Size:
Do the approach the is the easiest for you given the question.
Fundamentally, you need to take the approach that just makes the most sense in that circumstance. Quickly think about the key assumptions / numbers required and whether you 1) Know them or 2) Can reasonably estimate them. If you can, go ahead!
An Example
Here is a good Q&A great market sizing question asking to estimate # of electric charging stations in a city in 10 years:
This one could be answered top-down (as I did) by estimating population of the city, # of drivers/ cars, etc. etc.
OR, it could be answered bottom-up by estimating # of stations you see per block (or # of gas/petrol tanks), % increase this might be over time (or # of EV stations that would be needed per gas tank given EV stations take 10 times as long), and # of blocks you'd estimate the city to have.
Here's another market sizing (with answers + explanations) to get you started:
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I've just done this in real life :)
This really depends on how perfect the interviewer wants it to be. Meaning that I can do it taking 3 mins… or 30 mins.
Number of chargers = Charging demand / (Charging capacity of a single charger* capacity utilization)
Now the tricky part is how to you estimate capacity. Because it can be done in “kms of power”, in Kilowatts, etc…. I would probably do it in “full charges” and assume a full charge takes 4h (considering slow and fast charger average*) and provides 500 kms.
*Please note that one could deep dive and consider the multiple types of charges according to use case (in transit, parking, etc… I am assuming that most of chargers will be in parking and will be slow)
Capacity of a charger = 16 working hours / 4h *365 = 4 charges / day * 365 = ~1400 charges per year
Capacity utilization = ~70%
Therefore used capacity = 1400*70% = ~1000 charges/year
Charging demand = number of electrical vehicles * average kms driven a year by an electric car / 500 * % of charges done outside home
1.000.000 * 10.000 / 500 * 40% = 80.000.000
[Please note that a better way to do this would segment the charging demand between families and professional users…]
So number of chargers = 80.000.000 / 1.000 = 80.000 chargers
The tough part in this exercise is that one can be wildly wrong and have to idea… and there is a ton of assumptions above that the acceptable range of answers is so high that it is very easy to be completely wrong. Now, remember that the objective here is to show your thought process. You don't need to know how long it takes to charge an Electric Vehicle, you don't need to have a strong sense of capacity utilization not how frequently do people charge outside their home. That is why you should validate (or ask for support when defining) your assumptions with the interviewer.
Hope this helps, and happy to get any feedback on my own answer.
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Hi there,
I think this is an interesting question that may be relevant for many people. I would be happy to share my thoughts on it:
- Personally, I would approach the first part of the question from a demand-based perspective (i.e., identifying the number of electric cars per household), and the second part of it from a needs-based perspective (i.e., assessing the average mileage of an electric car and the share of private vs. public charging stations). However, I would also appreciate seeing your proposal for it.
- However, please keep in mind that most major strategy consulting companies have not used standalone market size estimations for a long time. While this does not mean it never happens, this type of case study question may not be very meaningful for both the candidate and interviewer, as only a few skills are being tested.
- That being said, simpler market size estimations may still be a part of a case study, for instance when estimating the revenues of the client company is required.
If you would like a more detailed discussion on how to best prepare for your upcoming interviews, please don't hesitate to contact me directly.
Best,
Hagen
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