expert
Experte mit der besten Antwort

Antonello

98% Empfehlungsrate

101 Meetings

189 USD / Coaching

3

# Market sizing: Milk consumption

Hi guys,

I need our input on two things;

1. A general question: The population of Norway is 5.3 million. That is a very difficult number to use with mental math. Both 1/80 (each age group) and 1/3, ¼ (different segmentations) are not clean enough for me to use in the market sizing. Neither is 5.5 million. 5.2 million is OK. My question is basically; should I go with 5.2 million here, or is it possible to round down to 5 million? That would make my life considerably easier, but at the same time, I think it is somewhat a stretch in terms of rounding.
2. Over to the market sizing; a friend got this market sizing in an interview recently, and I am not sure how to approach it. I give it a shot below:

How much milk is consumed in Norway each year?

• Lets go with a population of 5.2 million
• I do not think it makes sense to segment the population by age, as a 13 year old girl might on average drink as much milk as a 60 year old man. I will segment it by how much of a “milk-drinker” they are
• Does not drink milk (20%)
• Drink small amounts – 5 glasses a week – 1 every weekday (50%)
• Drinks a lot of milk – two glasses every weekday – 10 glasses a week (30%)
• This gives
• Does not drink milk = 1 million x 0 = 0
• Drink small amounts = 2.6 million x 5 = 13 million glasses
• Drinks a lot of milk = 1.6 million x 10 = 16 million glasses
• This gives a total of 29 million glasses a week, or round of to 30 million glasses a week.
• One glass of milk is about 3 dl, so that gives 90 million dl, or 9 million litres a week
• So the total consumption of milk then becomes 9m x 50 weeks a year = 450m litres a year

My problem is that consumption of regular liquid milk is not the only “source” of milk, and that was exactly what my friend was failing at during his case. How should I incorporate the fact that we consume A LOT of milk through other food? How would I structure/segment that?

Best

L

Hi guys,

I need our input on two things;

1. A general question: The population of Norway is 5.3 million. That is a very difficult number to use with mental math. Both 1/80 (each age group) and 1/3, ¼ (different segmentations) are not clean enough for me to use in the market sizing. Neither is 5.5 million. 5.2 million is OK. My question is basically; should I go with 5.2 million here, or is it possible to round down to 5 million? That would make my life considerably easier, but at the same time, I think it is somewhat a stretch in terms of rounding.
2. Over to the market sizing; a friend got this market sizing in an interview recently, and I am not sure how to approach it. I give it a shot below:

How much milk is consumed in Norway each year?

• Lets go with a population of 5.2 million
• I do not think it makes sense to segment the population by age, as a 13 year old girl might on average drink as much milk as a 60 year old man. I will segment it by how much of a “milk-drinker” they are
• Does not drink milk (20%)
• Drink small amounts – 5 glasses a week – 1 every weekday (50%)
• Drinks a lot of milk – two glasses every weekday – 10 glasses a week (30%)
• This gives
• Does not drink milk = 1 million x 0 = 0
• Drink small amounts = 2.6 million x 5 = 13 million glasses
• Drinks a lot of milk = 1.6 million x 10 = 16 million glasses
• This gives a total of 29 million glasses a week, or round of to 30 million glasses a week.
• One glass of milk is about 3 dl, so that gives 90 million dl, or 9 million litres a week
• So the total consumption of milk then becomes 9m x 50 weeks a year = 450m litres a year

My problem is that consumption of regular liquid milk is not the only “source” of milk, and that was exactly what my friend was failing at during his case. How should I incorporate the fact that we consume A LOT of milk through other food? How would I structure/segment that?

Best

L

(editiert)

3 Antworten

• Datum aufsteigend
• Datum absteigend

1. You can use 5m. With all the assumptions you are going to make, this first approximation is not important. I recommend asking the interviewer something like "Can I use 5m to facilitate the calculation?". 99% of the interviewers will not only let you go with it but also appreciate the simplification.

2. In every market sizing, you should always consider all the possible sources of revenue/ways of using the product. In this case, you should first of all divide in 2 the problem, in order to investigate all the milk consumption:

• liquid milk
• milk-based products: dairy products (cheese, yogurt, butter...), ice cream, chocolate, biscuits...

Now you can start to assess the first bullet. Your solution scheme is pretty good, maybe the numbers are too high. I would have added some details, to transform it in a great answer. E.g. when you mention the segment of people who do not drink milk you can make some customized examples (lactose intolerants, infants, some people on diet, vegans, ...). I think this segment is quite larger than 20% (maybe something like one third?), but here you do not need extreme accuracy, so 20% will be considered fine as well. Use common sense.

Completed the first sizing, you should go with the second bullet. It is more complex since all the market mentioned should be treated separately. You could ask the interviewer whether you can make a top-down estimation (like considering the whole point counting three times the first bullet). This is a very strong assumption and you will certainly lose a lot of accuracy, but at this point, the interviewer will have already assessed your problem-solving skills and common business sense, but at the same time, you do not miss any part of the problem. You can say something like "a further effort should be spent to address all the market, starting from its bigger missing parts, like dairy products and industrial milk-based products".

Best,

Antonello

1. You can use 5m. With all the assumptions you are going to make, this first approximation is not important. I recommend asking the interviewer something like "Can I use 5m to facilitate the calculation?". 99% of the interviewers will not only let you go with it but also appreciate the simplification.

2. In every market sizing, you should always consider all the possible sources of revenue/ways of using the product. In this case, you should first of all divide in 2 the problem, in order to investigate all the milk consumption:

• liquid milk
• milk-based products: dairy products (cheese, yogurt, butter...), ice cream, chocolate, biscuits...

Now you can start to assess the first bullet. Your solution scheme is pretty good, maybe the numbers are too high. I would have added some details, to transform it in a great answer. E.g. when you mention the segment of people who do not drink milk you can make some customized examples (lactose intolerants, infants, some people on diet, vegans, ...). I think this segment is quite larger than 20% (maybe something like one third?), but here you do not need extreme accuracy, so 20% will be considered fine as well. Use common sense.

Completed the first sizing, you should go with the second bullet. It is more complex since all the market mentioned should be treated separately. You could ask the interviewer whether you can make a top-down estimation (like considering the whole point counting three times the first bullet). This is a very strong assumption and you will certainly lose a lot of accuracy, but at this point, the interviewer will have already assessed your problem-solving skills and common business sense, but at the same time, you do not miss any part of the problem. You can say something like "a further effort should be spent to address all the market, starting from its bigger missing parts, like dairy products and industrial milk-based products".

Best,

Antonello

Hi,

1. You can use 5 m

2. The older the person gets the less is the milk tolerance, thus it depends on the age

3. You can use your personal example and calculate the average dairy products consumption during the week and then extrapolate

Best

Hi,

1. You can use 5 m

2. The older the person gets the less is the milk tolerance, thus it depends on the age

3. You can use your personal example and calculate the average dairy products consumption during the week and then extrapolate

Best

Hi,

For the general question, I would check with the interviewer. The interview is a conversation, thus try saying "I would like to approximate to 5 m, is it ok for you?". If the interviewer says yes, fine, if says no, go with 5.3. Afterward, when you are going to divide by 3 or 4, you are going to round up the result to make your life easier (always checking with the interviewer)

For the milk question, I would actually have approached it with households. Because, as you said, we can use milk to cook cakes, pasta, doing sauces and so on. Thus I would have considered in a household, saying 3 people per household, 3 meals per day. Then consider the percentage of these meals on a weekly basis are prepared with milk and then consider the amount of milk used per meal. And that's for households. Then, you have to consider corporates that use milk to produce other stuff (yogurts, cheese, energy drinks, ...). And this is another market size, taking quantities of products produced and how many liters of milk are needed per product into account.

Hi,

For the general question, I would check with the interviewer. The interview is a conversation, thus try saying "I would like to approximate to 5 m, is it ok for you?". If the interviewer says yes, fine, if says no, go with 5.3. Afterward, when you are going to divide by 3 or 4, you are going to round up the result to make your life easier (always checking with the interviewer)

For the milk question, I would actually have approached it with households. Because, as you said, we can use milk to cook cakes, pasta, doing sauces and so on. Thus I would have considered in a household, saying 3 people per household, 3 meals per day. Then consider the percentage of these meals on a weekly basis are prepared with milk and then consider the amount of milk used per meal. And that's for households. Then, you have to consider corporates that use milk to produce other stuff (yogurts, cheese, energy drinks, ...). And this is another market size, taking quantities of products produced and how many liters of milk are needed per product into account.

## Verwandte BootCamp-Artikel

2 Q&As

### Important Facts

It's essential to know some key figures regarding geographies, population, economies for your case interviews. We summarized them for you here.

1 Q&A

## Verwandte Cases

### Oliver Wyman case: Full Electrons Ahead

80,9 Tsd. mal gelöst
Oliver Wyman case: Full Electrons Ahead Your client, large automotive OEM WyCar, has developed its first fully electric vehicle (EV) and introduced it as a pilot on the Austrian market last year. However, sales have been far below the expected numbers. The management has engaged you to support them in understanding the reasons and advise them on how to adjust the product offering.
| Bewertung: (4.6 / 5.0)

Your client, large automotive OEM WyCar, has developed its first fully electric vehicle (EV) and introduced it as a pilot on the Austrian market last year. However, sales have been far below the expected numbers. The management has engaged you to support them in understanding the reasons and advise ... Ganzen Case öffnen

### Bain Case: Altes Weingut

54,1 Tsd. mal gelöst
Bain Case: Altes Weingut Sie erben von Ihrem Großvater ein Weingut, die Old Winery, welche sich seit fünf Generationen in Familienbesitz befindet und bis ins 16. Jahrhundert datiert werden kann. Auf den elf Hektar der Old Winery werden konventionell, d.h. nicht biologisch betrieben und zertifiziert, je zur Hälfte weiße und rote Trauben angebaut, wobei der Rebbestand bezüglich Alter und Pflege in gutem Zustand ist. Insgesamt werden nur ¼ der Ernte selbst zu Wein gekeltert; der Rest wird weiterverkauft. Ihr Großvater, der selbst am Image des Weinguts nichts verändern wollte, überließ die Bewirtschaftung und Verwaltung einem jungen dynamischen Winzer. Auf Grund des wenig bekannten Images des Weinguts ist die aktuelle Nachfrage nach dem eigenproduzierten Wein nicht besonders hoch. Da Sie sich mit Weinanbau wenig auskennen, wollen Sie das Weingut nicht operativ leiten, aber finden die Idee spannend, ein Weingut zu besitzen. Ihr Plan ist es jedoch, dem Weingut einen frischen Wind einzuhauchen.
| Bewertung: (4.4 / 5.0)

Sie erben von Ihrem Großvater ein Weingut, die Old Winery, welche sich seit fünf Generationen in Familienbesitz befindet und bis ins 16. Jahrhundert datiert werden kann. Auf den elf Hektar der Old Winery werden konventionell, d.h. nicht biologisch betrieben und zertifiziert, je zur Hälfte weiße und ... Ganzen Case öffnen

### Roland Berger Case: Onlinestar

36,3 Tsd. mal gelöst
Roland Berger Case: Onlinestar Onlinestar, ein Onlinehändler für Möbel- und Gartenprodukte (Kerngeschäft) ist durch eine Ausweitung des Produktportfolios in den letzten Jahren stark gewachsen. Das Unternehmen importiert hauptsächlich Ware von chinesischen Herstellern, verfügt aber auch über eine eigene Produktion von Katzentoiletten (Sondergeschäft) in Osteuropa. Der Vertrieb der Waren erfolgt über Amazon und ebay, seit kurzem aber auch über einen Onlineshop auf der eigenen Website. Trotz dieser Entwicklung haben sich die Finanzkennzahlen in den letzten Jahren verschlechtert. Insbesondere hat sich dabei die Rohertragsmarge deutlich reduziert. In Verbindung mit einem deutlichen Anstieg der Versandkosten führte dies zu einem erstmalig negativen Ergebnis im gerade abgeschlossenen Geschäftsjahr und einer hierdurch angespannten finanziellen Situation. Vor dem Hintergrund eines erwarteten stagnierenden Umsatzes für das aktuelle Geschäftsjahr ist kurzfristiger Handlungsbedarf gegeben. Der Vorstand von Onlinestar bittet Sie um eine Analyse der Gründe für das negative Ergebnis, sowie eine daraus abgeleitete Handlungsempfehlung. Als Berater sollen Sie Ihre Kenntnisse im Onlinehandel einbringen und Lösungsansätze erarbeiten. Zusätzlich möchte der Vorstand von Ihnen eine Umsatz- und Rohertragsplanung für das gerade beginnende Geschäftsjahr erhalten.
| Bewertung: (4.3 / 5.0)

Onlinestar, ein Onlinehändler für Möbel- und Gartenprodukte (Kerngeschäft) ist durch eine Ausweitung des Produktportfolios in den letzten Jahren stark gewachsen. Das Unternehmen importiert hauptsächlich Ware von chinesischen Herstellern, verfügt aber auch über eine eigene Produktion von Katzentoilet ... Ganzen Case öffnen

### TKMC Case: Elevators

17,4 Tsd. mal gelöst
TKMC Case: Elevators Ihr Kunde ist Marktführer im nordamerikanischen Aufzugsservicegeschäft. Dieses gliedert sich in die Bereiche Neuanlagenbau, Aufzugsmodernisierung und Service. Unser Kunde ist über ein Filialnetz besonders stark in mittleren Städten vertreten und möchte nun in Großstadtzentren sein Geschäft weiter ausbauen. Sein nächstes Ziel ist Manhattan und er fragt sich, wie groß das Potential ist.
| Bewertung: (4.2 / 5.0)

Ihr Kunde ist Marktführer im nordamerikanischen Aufzugsservicegeschäft. Dieses gliedert sich in die Bereiche Neuanlagenbau, Aufzugsmodernisierung und Service. Unser Kunde ist über ein Filialnetz besonders stark in mittleren Städten vertreten und möchte nun in Großstadtzentren sein Geschäft weiter a ... Ganzen Case öffnen

### DB MC Case: Einstieg in das internationale Fernbusgeschäft

5,4 Tsd. mal gelöst
DB MC Case: Einstieg in das internationale Fernbusgeschäft Für Unternehmen ergeben sich durch die Digitalisierung neue Chancen und Risiken. Neue Märkte mit großem Potenzial können erschlossen werden – gleichzeitig erhöhen Wettbewerber den Konkurrenzdruck. KMUs, Start-ups und Konzerne bringen unterschiedliche Kompetenzen und finanzielle Möglichkeiten mit. Erst vor wenigen Jahren ist ein Start-up mit Know-how im Online-Vertrieb nach der Änderung des Personenbeförderungsgesetzes in den deutschen Fernbusmarkt eingetreten, welches schnell ein großes Netzwerk an Subunternehmen aufgebaut und damit große Marktanteile gewonnen hat. Dies hatte erheblichen Einfluss auf das Kerngeschäft der Deutschen Bahn. Mit dem Ziel Synergien zu nutzen und die Bedürfnisse des Kunden ganzheitlich zu erfüllen, konzentriert sich die Deutsche Bahn nicht allein auf ihre bisherigen Geschäftsmodelle, sondern kooperiert mit anderen „Mobility-Unternehmen“. Von Ihrem Kunden aus dem Topmanagement wurden Sie als Consultant von DB Management Consulting beauftragt, einen Business Case zu bewerten und zu prüfen, ob die Deutsche Bahn ihr bisheriges Geschäftsmodell öffnen sollte, um durch die Kooperation mit einem etablierten mittelständischen Busunternehmen in das internationale Fernbusgeschäft einzusteigen. Die Deutsche Bahn bietet bereits wenige internationale Verbindungen der Marke „IC Bus“ an, jedoch hat die DB-Tochter in der Vergangenheit große Marktanteile verloren. Im Rahmen der Einführung soll dem Kunden zunächst die Verbindung Hamburg – Lund (Schweden) ohne Zwischenstopp in 7 Stunden angeboten werden. Die Distanz zwischen Lund und Hamburg liegt bei 385 km. Bei erfolgreichem Start ist ein schnelles Roll-out auf andere internationale sowie deutschlandweite Strecken geplant. Im Fokus stehen die Erhöhung des Marktanteils, die Bewertung der Nachfrage des Kunden, der Kosten und Erlöse sowie das prognostizierbare Wachstum im Fernbusmarkt.
| Bewertung: (4.3 / 5.0)

Für Unternehmen ergeben sich durch die Digitalisierung neue Chancen und Risiken. Neue Märkte mit großem Potenzial können erschlossen werden – gleichzeitig erhöhen Wettbewerber den Konkurrenzdruck. KMUs, Start-ups und Konzerne bringen unterschiedliche Kompetenzen und finanzielle Möglichkeiten mit. Er ... Ganzen Case öffnen