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Wie viel Kaviar wird in der 1st Class Lufthansa als %Anteil des weltweiten Gesamtkonsums ausgegeben?


Annahme: Jährliche Betrachtung. Es wird in jedem 1st Class Flug d. Lufthansa Kaviar angeboten. Gleichverteilung in Bezug auf potenzielle Kunden weltweit.

Mein Ansatz wäre wie folgt:

1. % Anteil an Menschen die 1st Class fliegen (gewohntes Umfeld): 50.000 Menschen in meiner Heimat-Stadt --> davon fliegen 5% in ihrem Leben 1x First-Class. 2.500 potentielle Kunden / 80 Jahre (durchschnittl. Lebenszeit) --> ca. 31 Kunden / Jahr

2. Skallierung auf Weltniveau: 31 Kunden / Jahr --> bei 7.5 Mill. Menschen weltweit (angenommen: Gleichverteilung) --> 4.5 Mio Kunden / Jahr

3. Marktanteil Lufthansa: Schätzung 10% (neben z.B. Air China, American Airlines, Emirate etc.) --> 450.000 1st Class Kunden / Jahr

4. Gesamtkonsum von Kavier weltweit: 7.5 Mill. Menschen --> durchschnittl. 3% der Menschen konsumieren Kavier (in Entwicklungsländern höherer Anteil an Nicht-Konsumenten) --> 225 Mio. Menschen.

5. Anteil d. Lufthansa 1st Class Kaviar- Konsumenten = 0,2%

--> Welche anderen Lösungsansätze gibt es ??? Wie prüfe ich im Nachgang, ob diese Zahl valide ist ???


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