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1

Wie viel Kaviar wird in der 1st Class Lufthansa als %Anteil des weltweiten Gesamtkonsums ausgegeben?

Annahme: Jährliche Betrachtung. Es wird in jedem 1st Class Flug d. Lufthansa Kaviar angeboten. Gleichverteilung in Bezug auf potenzielle Kunden weltweit.

Mein Ansatz wäre wie folgt:

1. % Anteil an Menschen die 1st Class fliegen (gewohntes Umfeld): 50.000 Menschen in meiner Heimat-Stadt --> davon fliegen 5% in ihrem Leben 1x First-Class. 2.500 potentielle Kunden / 80 Jahre (durchschnittl. Lebenszeit) --> ca. 31 Kunden / Jahr

2. Skallierung auf Weltniveau: 31 Kunden / Jahr --> bei 7.5 Mill. Menschen weltweit (angenommen: Gleichverteilung) --> 4.5 Mio Kunden / Jahr

3. Marktanteil Lufthansa: Schätzung 10% (neben z.B. Air China, American Airlines, Emirate etc.) --> 450.000 1st Class Kunden / Jahr

4. Gesamtkonsum von Kavier weltweit: 7.5 Mill. Menschen --> durchschnittl. 3% der Menschen konsumieren Kavier (in Entwicklungsländern höherer Anteil an Nicht-Konsumenten) --> 225 Mio. Menschen.

5. Anteil d. Lufthansa 1st Class Kaviar- Konsumenten = 0,2%

--> Welche anderen Lösungsansätze gibt es ??? Wie prüfe ich im Nachgang, ob diese Zahl valide ist ???

Annahme: Jährliche Betrachtung. Es wird in jedem 1st Class Flug d. Lufthansa Kaviar angeboten. Gleichverteilung in Bezug auf potenzielle Kunden weltweit.

Mein Ansatz wäre wie folgt:

1. % Anteil an Menschen die 1st Class fliegen (gewohntes Umfeld): 50.000 Menschen in meiner Heimat-Stadt --> davon fliegen 5% in ihrem Leben 1x First-Class. 2.500 potentielle Kunden / 80 Jahre (durchschnittl. Lebenszeit) --> ca. 31 Kunden / Jahr

2. Skallierung auf Weltniveau: 31 Kunden / Jahr --> bei 7.5 Mill. Menschen weltweit (angenommen: Gleichverteilung) --> 4.5 Mio Kunden / Jahr

3. Marktanteil Lufthansa: Schätzung 10% (neben z.B. Air China, American Airlines, Emirate etc.) --> 450.000 1st Class Kunden / Jahr

4. Gesamtkonsum von Kavier weltweit: 7.5 Mill. Menschen --> durchschnittl. 3% der Menschen konsumieren Kavier (in Entwicklungsländern höherer Anteil an Nicht-Konsumenten) --> 225 Mio. Menschen.

5. Anteil d. Lufthansa 1st Class Kaviar- Konsumenten = 0,2%

--> Welche anderen Lösungsansätze gibt es ??? Wie prüfe ich im Nachgang, ob diese Zahl valide ist ???

(edited)

1 answer

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Hallo Brinja,

vielleicht kommt diese Antwort ein bissel spät, aber here it goes,

Dein Ansatz ist sicher nicht schlecht. Allerdings anzunehmen, dass jeder 1st Class Kunde der LH Kaviar isst, wäre ein Lapsus auf den ich als Interviewer hingewiesen hätte. Weiterhin denk daran, dass die Leute die 1st fliegen das tendenziell häufiger im Jahr tun, das finde ich in Deiner Rechnung nicht wieder.

Ganz generell ist der Case tricky, weil Du eine sehr, sehr kleine Gruppe (1 st class Kunden der LH und dann auch nur ihr Konsum während der Flüge) ins Verhältnis setzt zu einer sehr großen Gruppe (alle Kaviarkonsumenten weltweit und deren Konsum an 365 Tagen im Jahr).

Hier noch ein paar grundsätzliche Gedanken zum Thema Market Sizing:
https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-many-six-packs-of-beer-are-sold-in-a-year-in-the-us-2364

Hallo Brinja,

vielleicht kommt diese Antwort ein bissel spät, aber here it goes,

Dein Ansatz ist sicher nicht schlecht. Allerdings anzunehmen, dass jeder 1st Class Kunde der LH Kaviar isst, wäre ein Lapsus auf den ich als Interviewer hingewiesen hätte. Weiterhin denk daran, dass die Leute die 1st fliegen das tendenziell häufiger im Jahr tun, das finde ich in Deiner Rechnung nicht wieder.

Ganz generell ist der Case tricky, weil Du eine sehr, sehr kleine Gruppe (1 st class Kunden der LH und dann auch nur ihr Konsum während der Flüge) ins Verhältnis setzt zu einer sehr großen Gruppe (alle Kaviarkonsumenten weltweit und deren Konsum an 365 Tagen im Jahr).

Hier noch ein paar grundsätzliche Gedanken zum Thema Market Sizing:
https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-many-six-packs-of-beer-are-sold-in-a-year-in-the-us-2364

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