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Market size question: band-aid market in Australia each year

Hi, may I know if my approach sounds reasonable to you, and does anyone has a better approach?

#band-aid consumed x $/band-aid

1. Household uses

HH numbers x 1 box of band aid (50 pieces) consumed each year

10M * 50 pieces = 500M pieces

2. Office uses

# of working places with an average 50 working staff x 1 box of band aid for a location with 50 employees per year

= # working population x 1 piece of band aid each year

25M x (65-20)/80 = 14M

(This part, I honestly think it's not exclusive since schools prepare band aids for students, shopping malls prepare band aids for customers etc., so I may reframe this bucket as “out-side of home place”, and 1 band aid is made available for 1 person ==> 25M band aids sold.)

3. Health case system uses

# GP visits * 1 piece of band aid used each time

assuming on average people visit GP one every quarter (of course this can be further broken down by age groups)

25M/4 x 1 = 6.25M

==>

Total band aid pieces used per year in Australia 500M+14M+6.25M = 520M

$0.10/piece

Market size = 52M

Sense check: 52M/25M = $2.08, each person spends $2 on band aid each year, seems reasonable. 

 

Thanks. 

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Top answer
Ian
Coach
on Aug 23, 2021
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi there,

You've overcomplicated this!

Remember that the point of segmenting is to HELP you estimate better.

Market sizing is NOT about making things complicated for the sake of it.

Quick question: Which of the following do you know better:

1) How many bandaids an office/hospital use

2) How many bandaids YOU use/need?

Take yourself, your annual bandaid use, and then compare it to a segmentation of the population that actually makes sense (hint, not households).

The youngest and oldest populations probably need/use more bandaids…so segment this way!

Please don't do households AND hospitals AND offices…you're not being MECE…just get the average Australian and multiply by 20M (segmented by age).

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