Hi, may I know if my approach sounds reasonable to you, and does anyone has a better approach?
#band-aid consumed x $/band-aid
1. Household uses
HH numbers x 1 box of band aid (50 pieces) consumed each year
10M * 50 pieces = 500M pieces
2. Office uses
# of working places with an average 50 working staff x 1 box of band aid for a location with 50 employees per year
= # working population x 1 piece of band aid each year
25M x (65-20)/80 = 14M
(This part, I honestly think it's not exclusive since schools prepare band aids for students, shopping malls prepare band aids for customers etc., so I may reframe this bucket as “out-side of home place”, and 1 band aid is made available for 1 person ==> 25M band aids sold.)
3. Health case system uses
# GP visits * 1 piece of band aid used each time
assuming on average people visit GP one every quarter (of course this can be further broken down by age groups)
25M/4 x 1 = 6.25M
==>
Total band aid pieces used per year in Australia 500M+14M+6.25M = 520M
$0.10/piece
Market size = 52M
Sense check: 52M/25M = $2.08, each person spends $2 on band aid each year, seems reasonable.
Thanks.