Estimate how many hospital beds for pregnant women are necessary in a year in the US

brainteaser Guesstimate Market sizing
New answer on May 16, 2021
3 Answers
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Anonymous A asked on Apr 25, 2021

I am preparing for am interview next week and I would much appreciate if anyone could share his thoughts on this question! Also, how would the answer change if the timeframe was in a day?

Many thanks

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Ian
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replied on Apr 26, 2021
BCG | 100% personal interview success rate (8/8) and 95% candidate success rate | Personalized interview prep

Hi there,

You'll really get the best out of this exercise if you try it yourself. Why don't you post what you're thinking and we can help?

Hint: Do you think this makes more sense top-down or bottom up?

General Tips

Remember that there's rarely a "best" answer with market sizing. What's important is that you break down the problem the way it makes sense to you. Importantly, break it down so that the assumptions you make are the ones you're most comfortable in.

For example, do you know all the major brands? Great go with that. Do you understand all the segments of that country's population (either age or wealth or job breakdown)? Go with that. Do you know the total market size of a similar industry? Then break it down that way.

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Anonymous B on May 14, 2021

If it will be done bottom up, you think we should start with what?

Gaurav on May 16, 2021

Here's how i would do it Equation: # of births/Day X Avg Duration a Bed is needed # of births in US is slightly over 1% of pop so 4 M new kids born year or 4M/400 = 10K births per day Now now all births are same so i would break down into normal delivery and c section. I would assume a 60:40 so 6K normal briths and 4K c section That means 6,000 X 3 Days (avg bed needed for normal) + 4,000 X 5 Days (Avg bed needed for c section) 18K + 20K = 38K making it 40K. Let me know your thoughts. I feel I am missing something.

Gaurav
Expert
Content Creator
replied on Apr 25, 2021
Ex-Mckinsey|Certified Career Coach |Placed 500+ candidates at MBB & other consultancies

Hey there!

Why wouldn't you write your solution first? This way you would practice and test your skills. We will give you extensive feedback then!

Hope to see your approach!

GB

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Anonymous A on Apr 25, 2021

Hi Gaurav, thanks a lot for your comment! I would approach it as follows: I would assume that the # of hospital beds required for pregnant women is equal to the # of babies born each year. Assuming that (i) the population is evenly distributed by age (ii) the average life expectancy is 80 years and (iii) US population is 300 M people, the # of newborns per year(= to the # of hospital beds necessary for pregnant women) is 300M/80years = 3.75 M. Do you think it makes sense? Many thanks, M

Gaurav on May 16, 2021

That is incorrect and so is my answer posted below. Why would you need 3/75 Million beds. Not everyone is born on the same day.

Gaurav updated an answer on May 16, 2021

Here's how i would do it

Equation: # of births/Day X Avg Duration a Bed is needed

# of births in US is slightly over 1% of pop so 4 M new kids born year or 4M/400 = 10K births per day

Now now all births are same so i would break down into normal delivery and c section. I would assume a 60:40 so 6K normal briths and 4K c section

That means

6,000 X 3 Days (avg bed needed for normal) + 4,000 X 5 Days (Avg bed needed for c section)

18K + 20K = 38K making it 40K

Experts, please weigh in

(edited)

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Anonymous C on Jul 26, 2021

Good breakdown, only usually bed is needed for a day after normal birth, and 3-4 days after c-section

Ian gave the best answer

Ian

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