Hi,
Can someone help me in estimating the annual market size of speed cameras in Sweden?
My approach:
a. Current installed base of cameras / b. Lifetime of camera
a. Installed base of cameras in Sweden= # of cars * Speed cameras per # of cars
b. 10 years (assumed)
Calculation of # of cars= # of HH* # cars per HH
→ # of HH = Population of Sweden / No. of people per HH
=10m/4 people per HH
=2.5m HH
→ 1.5 cars per HH (assumed)
# of cars= 2.5m HH * 1.5 cars/HH = 3.75m cars
→ Speed cameras per # of cars are assumed to be different in urban and rural areas. 70% of cars in urban region with 1 camera per 50 cars and 30% of cars in rural region with 1 camera per 100 cars
→ 3.75m cars*70%*1/50+ 3.75m cars*30%*1/100
=60k cameras
Therefore, no. of speed cameras in SE= 60k cameras/ 10years (lifetime of a camera) = 6k cameras.
However, due to current trends and improving technologies only 1 out of every 2 camera would be replaced and this will lead to a deduction in the installed base over time
= 6k cameras-(0.5*6k)
=3k cameras in total
Could someone please validate the approach now?
(editiert)
