Hi,
I have been trying to solve this market sizing with my own approach and would like to have your ideas on how to solve it quickly and effectively? Multiple ideas and approaches are more than welcome!
Thanks a lot in advance :)
Hi,
You should make the following assumptions:
Best
Hi,
A practical solution to this question would be to look at the bottlenecks, i.e. security lanes at the airport (instead of gates, number of flights etc.). The approach would be to multiply
Best,
Deniz
Hi, it is fair what you said but it will exclude the passengers landing on the airport. Total passengers would include departures + arrivals and with your suggested solution, we will just be covering the "departing" passengers. Please correct me if I am wrong. Thanks!
It might be prudent to clarify if we count both departures and arrivals. Vlad just delivered an approach to calculate both departing and arriving passengers, while Deniz takes into account only departures.
If I were to do it:
Heathrow is one of if not the most busy airport int he world, therefore assume a plane leaves/arrives every 10 mins. That would be 6 planes an hour and with 2 runways makes 12 planes an hour total. Which equates to 288 planes a day (12*24).
Understand this may be a high range value as there will be inefficiencies in some planes (go arounds etc.) and peak/off peak times.
Then I would take an average plane of 400 passengers and times this by 250 planes per day (moved down from 288 to account for inefficiences and off peak times - could be lower).
This would give 100000 passengers per day at heathrow from arrivals and departures.
Interested to see how other people would do it (probably could do it on number of gates at heathrow and a plane leaving/arriving every hour or so at a gate)?
Hi, I tried the approach the HU said. And tried doing it by number of gates. I estimated 5 terminals (incl. international/ domestic) and assumed around 20 gates per terminal. Then I calculated the average utilisation of the gates (based on time taken by one flight in completing the boarding). Then assumed 20 out of 24 hours of operations. That gave me the number of flights boarded every hour- scaling up to a day. And finally, I assumed the number of passengers in a flight and multiplied with the total #flights estimated in step 1. I estimated approximately 140,000 passengers per day. Looking forward to other approaches!
Vlad highlighted the simplest bottom up estimation approach. An alternative top down approach is to look at number of visitors to London a year, estimate % by different ports of entry and assign a % to Heathrow (vs Gatwick, Luton and City)
