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Anonymous A
on Jan 19, 2020
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Market sizing case

Hi there,

I have been recently interviewed by Bain and they have asked me how many tourists there are in Paris in a year? How would you estimate it? 

Thanks a lot!

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Top answer
Udayan
Coach
on Jan 22, 2020
Top rated Case & PEI coach/Multiple real offers/McKinsey EM in New York /12 years recruiting experience

Hi 

There are a few ways to estimate the number of tourists in Paris. One quick way is highlighted below.

Take the total population of Paris - ~10M

Assume on average in any given day ~2.5% of the population are some form of tourists (this includes domestic, int'l, EU, business etc.) - so 250K people on any given day

Assume that on avg, a tourist stays in Paris for maybe 3 days (Some more and some less)

That means every 3 days there is a new set of 250K people coming into Paris. Which means in one year, 122 sets of 250K tourists visit  Paris (365/3)

122*250K is ~30M tourists annually in Paris.

You can play with these assumptions to get a different number 

Hope this helps,

Udayan

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Luca
Coach
on Jan 19, 2020
BCG |NASA | SDA Bocconi & Cattolica partner | GMAT expert 780/800 score | 200+ students coached

Hello,

You could approach the problem in 2 different ways:

  1. Estimating the number of hotels and airbnb apartments in Paris and their occupancy (then you can increase it by a small percentage to include people that are hosted by friends/relatives)  
  2. Estimating the number of flights and trains that arrive in Paris in a given day. This way is more complex because you have then to estimate the percentage of passengers that are tourists. Furthermore, you are not considering tourists coming by car

I would follow the furst methid and then propose to do a sanity check of the result using the second one.

Does it make sense?

Best,
Luca

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Anonymous B
on Jan 20, 2020
Is it possible to do the above process in 5 minutes (given this is a market sizing question in a case)?
Clara
Coach
on Jan 21, 2020
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Hello!

The most important thing in cases like this one is to be very structured and not loose your nerves. I would go with calculating the maximum hotel (hotels/appartments/places where turists stay) capacity and then calculate the % during the months (e.g., calculate 95% in June but only 80% in December)

Hope it helps. 

Cheers, 

Clara

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Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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