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Hallo Zusammen,

habe eine Frage zur Herangehensweise eines Cases bei der Marktabschätzung zu Babywindeln. Firma X möchte in den Holländischen Markt eintreten (17 Mio. EW), Geburtenrate liegt bei 1,7 bei Frauen zw. 20-39 Jahren. Wie würdet ihr da geran gehen ?

Sidi replied on 06/20/2018
McKinsey Engagement Manager & BCG Consultant | Interviewer at McK & BCG for 7 years | Coached 60+ candidates secure MBB offers

Hallo Brinja,

hier ein Bottom-Up Ansatz:

Das jährliche Marktvolumen in Holland entspricht

[ I. Menge verbrauchter Windeln pro Jahr] x [ II. durchschnittlicher Verkaufspreis pro Windel]

I. Menge verbrauchter Windeln pro Jahr:

  • [ I.a) Anzahl windeltragender Babys] x [ I.b) Anzahl benötigter Windeln pro Baby pro Jahr]
  • I.a) Unterstelle 50:50 Split Frauen zu Männer, Lebenserwartung von 80 Jahren und eine Gleichverteilung der Altersstruktur in der Bevölkerung. Das heisst, es gibt 8,5 Mio. Frauen in Holland, und 25% davon sind zwischen 20 und 39 Jahre alt (2,125 Mio.) Jede dieser 2,125 Mio. Frauen bringt innerhalb der genannten Altersspanne 1,7 Kinder zur Welt, also 3,6 Mio. Babys. Pro Jahr sind das dann 3,6 Mio./20 = 180Tsd. Babys. Gehen wir ferner davon aus, dass Babys 3 Jahre Lang Windeln tragen, so heisst das, dass zu jedem Zeitpunkt drei "Jahrgänge" an Babys Windeln benötigen. Also 180.000 x 3 = 540.000 windeltragende Babys jedes Jahr.
  • I.b) Nehmen wir an, ein Baby benötigt drei Windeln am Tag,
  • Somit ergibt sich eine Anzahl von 1,6 Mio. verbrauchter Windeln am Tag, und entsprechend 590 Mio. Windeln im Jahr.

Nun muss man nur noch diese 590 Mio. mit (II.) dem durchschnittlichen Verkaufspreis pro Windel multiplizieren und erhält das Marktvolumen.

Viele Grüße, Sidi


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