Market Sizing: number of visitors in an airport in one day

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Kiga fragte am 26. Aug. 2019

Market sizing: number of visitors in an airport in one day?

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Giulia
Experte
antwortete am 26. Aug. 2019
McKinsey Business Analyst | 3+ years Experience | MBA at LBS

Hi Kiga,

All your questions can be answered in similar ways, I'll answer this one and I'm sure you'll be able to figure out the others. This is how I would have solved it:

- Assume only people that have to take a plane/landing in the airport are considered (so not considering drivers that are coming to pick up a business person or parents coming to say hello to their relatives going away)

- Divide flights in international, national and transatlantic

- Assume the number of each plane arriving and going per day (these numbers will change based on the specific airport you are going to choose)

- Assume the capacity per plane and % of actual occupancy (e.g., morning national flights could be full in the mornings because of business travelers, but half full in the afternoon because mainly tourists going from one region to the other will fly on that)

- Assume a % of people landing from a plane at your airport (per type of flight) and taking another plane from there (because they are going to be the same people, so you will not want to count them twice)

- Multiply everything together per national, international and transatlantic flights, sum everything and you'll have the number of people that would have put their foot on the airport on that day

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Liyang antwortete am 26. Aug. 2019

1 define the term "visitors", for example, does it only refer to passengers, or airport working staff also need to be considered.

2 segment visitors into three groups (by their objective of visiting): A passengers B friends/ family that come together with passengers C airport working staff;

3 group A guesstimation: from supply side: number of flight that takes on/land in one day * average number of seats per flight * attendance rate (first and third factor could be further segmented according to flight take-off time); or from demand side (harder than supply side): people who leave(tourist leave+citizen leave) + people who arrive(visitor+citizen come home), for citizen part, we could use total number of citizens * percentage, and could further segment with age/ career...

4 group B guesstimation: segment group A's number by age, then for each group, use the "accompany number * passenger number" method

5 group C guesstimation: independant of group A and B; list out departments in airport, and then guesstimate how much staff there will be in each of them

6 add up three numbers: A+B+C; then it will be the result

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Ian
Experte
Content Creator
antwortete am 31. Dez. 2021
BCG | 100% personal interview success rate (8/8) and 95% candidate success rate | Personalized interview prep

Hi there,

Providing some market sizing thinking for anyone revisiting this Q&A:

Remember that there's rarely a "best" answer with market sizing. What's important is that you break down the problem the way it makes sense to you. Importantly, break it down so that the assumptions you make are the ones you're most comfortable in.

For example, do you know all the major brands? Great go with that. Do you understand all the segments of that country's population (either age or wealth or job breakdown)? Go with that. Do you know the total market size of the tourism (or hotel) industry? Then break it down that way.

Some tips:

  1. Just like in a case, make sure you understand the question - what are you really being asked to calculate
  2. Decide whether a top-down or bottom-up approach is best
  3. Figure out what you know you know, and what you know you don't know, but could estimate
    1. This helps you determine how to split out buckets
  4. Stay flexible - you can start with a "high-level" market sizing, but gauge your interviewers reaction....if it looks like they want you to do more...then go along level deeper in terms of your splits
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Giulia gab die beste Antwort

Giulia

McKinsey Business Analyst | 3+ years Experience | MBA at LBS
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