How would you approach this case?
Werde aktiv in unserer Community aus über 451.000 Gleichgesinnten!
Verabrede dich zum Casen über das Meeting-Board, nimm an Diskussionen in unserem Consulting Q&A teil und finde gleichgesinnte Case-Partner, um dich auszutauschen und gemeinsam zu üben!
Market sizing case: how many petrol stations are there in the US?
Übersicht der Antworten
Upvotes
Beste Antwort
Hi Anonymous,
As mentioned earlier, there are many different ways one can approach this problem. I typically approach this following way:
1. What is the total demand for gas stations?
2. What is the demand for one gas station?
3. -> Find the total number of gas stations
To start with number 1, while I have no idea about the real numbers, let's assume that population is 400M, and there is 1 car per 4 people. Thus we would have 100M cars.
Now we need to estimate the total demand for a day/week/year, let's go ahead with day. From my personal experience, I visit gas stations once every two weeks. Assuming this is the case for the entire population, 100M cars would visit gas stations every two weeks. This means that about 7M cars visit gas stations every day. -> This is the total demand.
Now we are at number 2, we need to understand the number of cars visit a gas station during one day. To keep it simple, we can assume (again, based on personal experience) that there are always 3 cars occupying the gas station for 5 minutes throughout 18 hours (and the remaining of the time, the gas station is empty). This would give us ~600 cars every day. -> This is the demand for one gas station.
We can find the number of gas stations by diving total demand (7M) by local demand (600), and reach ~12000 as our final answer.
I have quickly checked on google, and the real answer is about x10 higher than my answer. HOWEVER, it really is not important to get a precise answer to impress the interviewer. It is all about sharing your train of thought and laying out your assumptions very explicitly.
I hope this was helpful.
Have a good day,
Deniz Ahmet
War diese Antwort hilfreich?
There are infinite ways to size it so the following is by no means an exact answer. My preferred method would be to initially segment by locality, given that the drivers of demand for a petrol station are significantly different between rural areas and population centers.
Stations in rural areas are driven by the average range of a car when they need to refuel, so you could derive a number through the station density and area of America.
Stations in population centers are driven by the demand (i.e. the number of cars) in each city. I would actually segment this down further into Metropolises/Cities/Towns given the large difference in population size between them. Also, you would need to factor in that these stations are nowhere near running at full capacity.
I appreciate any feedback on this approach.
War diese Antwort hilfreich?
Hi there,
Population and Car Ownership: I would assume a population of approximately 330 million in the US. To estimate the number of cars, I would assume that, on average, there is one car for every 2.5 people. This would give us roughly 132 million cars in the US.
Daily Visit Frequency: I would assume that, on average, a car visits a petrol station every three days. This assumption is based on typical driving habits and the need for refueling.
Capacity of a Petrol Station: Assuming each petrol station can serve 500 cars in a day, given the number of fuel pumps and the station's operating hours.
By multiplying the number of cars by the visit frequency and dividing by the capacity of a petrol station, I can estimate the total number of petrol stations needed. Using these assumptions, the calculation would look like this:
(132 million cars / 3 days) / 500 cars per station per day = 88,000 petrol stations
War diese Antwort hilfreich?
I would think how many petrol stations are in a specific region. For example, you know that in the city you live in there are 6 petrol stations. Let's say the city has 30 000 people, so that results to about 5000 people per petrol station. US has about 300million people, so divide 300m/5000 and you get 60 000 petrol stations.
War diese Antwort hilfreich?
I like answer 1!
There are more detailed ways but I like this approach because you give a quick answer and then you can walk your interviewer how you refine these high-level assumptions.
(editiert)
War diese Antwort hilfreich?
Hi!
To add on top what´s been said, you can also do it from:
# vehicles > # liters each of them consume > averge need for a gas station.
You can also use 1 method and the 2nd one to proof it.
Cheers,
Clara
War diese Antwort hilfreich?
Verwandte Cases
Unternehmenscase von Oliver Wyman
Your client, large automotive OEM WyCar, has developed its first fully electric vehicle (EV) and introduced it as a pilot on the Austrian market last year. However, sales have been far below the expected numbers. The management has engaged you to support them in understanding the reasons and advise
...
Your client, large automotive OEM WyCar, has developed its first fully electric vehicle (EV) and introduced it as a pilot on the Austrian market last year. However, sales have been far below
...
(Ganzen Case öffnen)
121,3 T.
mal gelöst
Fortgeschritten
Schwierigkeitsgrad
Unternehmenscase von Bain & Company
Du erbst von deinem Großvater ein Weingut, die Old Winery, welche sich seit fünf Generationen in Familienbesitz befindet und bis ins 16. Jahrhundert datiert werden kann.Auf den elf Hektar der Old Winery werden konventionell, d.h. nicht biologisch betrieben und zertifiziert, je zur Hälfte weiße und r
...
Du erbst von deinem Großvater ein Weingut, die Old Winery, welche sich seit fünf Generationen in Familienbesitz befindet und bis ins 16. Jahrhundert datiert werden kann.Auf den elf Hektar de
...
(Ganzen Case öffnen)
118,1 T.
mal gelöst
Fortgeschritten
Schwierigkeitsgrad
Unternehmenscase von Roland Berger
Onlinestar, ein Onlinehändler für Möbel- und Gartenprodukte (Kerngeschäft) ist durch eine Ausweitung des Produktportfolios in den letzten Jahren stark gewachsen. Das Unternehmen importiert hauptsächlich Ware von chinesischen Herstellern, verfügt aber auch über eine eigene Produktion von Katzentoilet
...
Onlinestar, ein Onlinehändler für Möbel- und Gartenprodukte (Kerngeschäft) ist durch eine Ausweitung des Produktportfolios in den letzten Jahren stark gewachsen. Das Unternehmen importiert h
...
(Ganzen Case öffnen)
92,2 T.
mal gelöst
Fortgeschritten
Schwierigkeitsgrad
Unternehmenscase von RWE Consulting
RWE has reliably supplied people and companies with electricity for more than 120 years with activities around the world with a clear focus on growth. The company is pushing the energy transition to climate neutrality with focus on renewable energy sources like offshore or onshore wind as well as ph
...
RWE has reliably supplied people and companies with electricity for more than 120 years with activities around the world with a clear focus on growth. The company is pushing the energy trans
...
(Ganzen Case öffnen)
16,3 T.
mal gelöst
Fortgeschritten
Schwierigkeitsgrad
Unternehmenscase von E.ON Inhouse Consulting
Climate change has become one of the biggest challenges in the 21st century, and with roughly 75% of all CO₂ emissions coming from energy, this sector plays a key role in the transition to a reduced carbon footprint. E.ON has taken up on the challenge to promote more sustainable and efficient energy
...
Climate change has become one of the biggest challenges in the 21st century, and with roughly 75% of all CO₂ emissions coming from energy, this sector plays a key role in the transition to a
...
(Ganzen Case öffnen)
5,0 T.
mal gelöst
Fortgeschritten
Schwierigkeitsgrad
why did you ignore commercial vehicles?
I did the following steps: USA population = 330 mil Number of vehicles = Private vehicles + company vehicles + state vehicles (police, army, ambulance, firefighters) PERSONAL VEHICLES CALCULATION - 1 household = 4 members -> aprox. 83 mil. households - 65% of households possess 1 car = 54 mil cars - 35% of households possess 2 cars = 2*83 mil.*0,35 = 58 mil cars - Number of personal vehicles = 54 mil + 58 mil = 112 mil vehicles COMPANIES VEHICLES CALCULATION - My assumption is that ratio between private and companies vehicles is 5:1 --> 20% - Number of companies vehicles = 112 mil *0,2 = 22,4 mil --> 22 mil vehicles STATE VEHICLES CALCULATION - My assumption is that ratio between private and state vehicles is 10:1 --> 10% - Number of state vehicles = 112 mil * 0,1 = 11,2 --> 11 mil vehicles Number of vehicles = (112+22+11)*mil= 145 mil Average volume of vehicle tank = 60 liters My assumption is that every vehicle is refuled twice a month which leads to the following monthly assumption of fuel = 2* Number of vehicles * Average volume of vehicle tank = 2*145 mil*60= 17,4 billion liters Every gas station is refuled 7 times a month (assumption) Number of cars per petrol station evetyday (assumption) = 600 cars Petrol tank(s) capacity for every petrol station = Number of cars per petrol station * average volume of vehicle's tank = 600 * 60 = 36 000 liters Number of Petrol station in USA = monthly assumption of fuel / (Gas tank(s) capacity for every petrol station*number of mohntly refulement for every petrol station) = 17,4 billion liters / (36 thousand liters *7)= 17,4 mil / 252 thousand = 69 047 petrol stations Answer: There are 69 047 petrol stations in USA Is this approach good or it is a little bit complicated? Thank you for your answer! :D
(editiert)