Market sizing - Number of mineral water bottles in Dubai?

Market sizing
New answer on Dec 31, 2021
5 Answers
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Charles
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asked on Jan 20, 2020

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Luca
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replied on Jan 20, 2020
BCG |NASA | SDA Bocconi & Cattolica partner | GMAT expert 780/800 score | 200+ students coached

Hello Mike,

You can easily approach this case in the following way:

  • Population of Dubai
  • Estimation of tourists in Dubai
  • Average water consumption per day. Be careful to consider substitutes (especially for young people) and the reduced water consumption for babies
  • Liters of water = # people * consumption
  • Average bottle capacity
  • # of bottles = Liters of water / average bottle capacity

I would skip the segmentation of the population by age in this case, since the water consumption per day is pretty much the same. I would just mention those 2 qualitative point when you have to estimate the average consumption per day.

Hope it helps,
Luca

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Gautham replied on Jan 20, 2020
Looking to practice and learn with committed folks on a daily basis. Cheers !

Market sizing case solution: Number of water bottles in dubai

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Gautham on Jan 20, 2020

Hey Mike, we must consider the impact of substitutes too (such as softdrinks, energy drinks, beer, etc...) which will reduce mineral water consumption in our case. To make the math simpler, i would say 10% (justify with a sanity-check) of our final number at step (4) is impacted by substitutes and give my final estimate accordingly.

Charles on Jan 23, 2020

Thanks Gautham

Ian
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replied on Dec 31, 2021
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Hi there,

Providing some market sizing thinking for anyone revisiting this Q&A:

Remember that there's rarely a "best" answer with market sizing. What's important is that you break down the problem the way it makes sense to you. Importantly, break it down so that the assumptions you make are the ones you're most comfortable in.

For example, do you know all the major brands? Great go with that. Do you understand all the segments of that country's population (either age or wealth or job breakdown)? Go with that. Do you know the total market size of the tourism (or hotel) industry? Then break it down that way.

Some tips:

  1. Just like in a case, make sure you understand the question - what are you really being asked to calculate
  2. Decide whether a top-down or bottom-up approach is best
  3. Figure out what you know you know, and what you know you don't know, but could estimate
    1. This helps you determine how to split out buckets
  4. Stay flexible - you can start with a "high-level" market sizing, but gauge your interviewers reaction....if it looks like they want you to do more...then go along level deeper in terms of your splits
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Clara
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replied on Jan 21, 2020
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Agree with Vlad, there are several posts like this -and btw, the approach is the same one for all-.

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Vlad
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replied on Jan 20, 2020
McKinsey / Accenture Alum / Got all BIG3 offers / Harvard Business School

Hi,

A good habit is to ask for help (not just in a subject line), and provide at least your ideas, so that we could give feedback

Best!

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Luca gave the best answer

Luca

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BCG |NASA | SDA Bocconi & Cattolica partner | GMAT expert 780/800 score | 200+ students coached
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