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Gee
on Sep 02, 2023
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

How many cars are sold in the UK annually?

How would you size the market for car sales in the UK annually?

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Marvin
Coach
on Sep 04, 2023
Former BCG Consultant | Startup Founder | Holistic approach to a successful application - cases & beyond | 10% discount

Hi,

There are many ways to do it but here's a structured approach to help you estimate the market size:

Define the Market: Clarify the scope of the market you are analyzing. Are you interested in new car sales, used car sales, or both? Make sure you and the interviewer are aligned on what you're estimating.

Population Estimate: Start with an estimate of the total population of the UK. You can use official government statistics or reputable sources for this figure. Let's assume it's around 68 million.

Household Estimate: Determine the average household size in the UK. Typically, this is around 2.4 to 2.5 people per household. You can also ask the interviewer if your assumption is reasonable.

Car Ownership Rate: Assume the average car ownership rate per household. This can vary based on urban or rural areas, income levels, and other factors. For instance, if you assume that 70% of households own at least one car, you can calculate the number of car-owning households.

Average Number of Cars per Household: Estimate the average number of cars per car-owning household. This can vary as well, with some households having multiple cars while others have only one. Assume an average, e.g., 1.2 cars per car-owning household. Again, verify the feasibility of your interviewer and make sure to present a reasoning for your assumptions.

Total Cars in the UK: Multiply the number of car-owning households by the average number of cars per household to estimate the total number of cars in the UK.

Annual Car Sales per Person: Research or assume the average frequency of car purchases per person in the UK annually. This might be influenced by factors like population growth, economic conditions, and car lifespan. A common assumption is that cars are replaced every 7-10 years, which corresponds to 0.1 to 0.14 cars per person per year.

Market Size: Multiply the total population by the annual car sales per person to estimate the annual market size for car sales in the UK.

The formula for estimating the market size would look like this:

Market Size = (Population) x (Car Ownership Rate) x (Average Number of Cars per Household) x (Annual Car Sales per Person)

Keep in mind that this is a simplified approach, and actual market size estimation can be more complex. It's crucial to explain your assumptions clearly. Additionally, consider any specific factors or trends that might affect car sales in the UK, such as economic conditions or shifts in consumer preferences.

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Ian
Coach
on Sep 03, 2023
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi Gee,

You'll learn a lot more from this by trying it out yourself first! Why don't you post your approach here and we can provide commentary?

How to approach market sizing

It's very simple: Do the approach the is the easiest for you given the question.

Are they asking you to estimate something where you don't even know where to begin from the top (maybe you have 0 clue as to the market size of the industry, the GDP of that country, etc. etc.)? Then do bottom-up!

Alternatively, does it seem impossible to do a realistic from-the-ground-up estimation of something (perhaps it requires just far too many steps and assumptions)? Then do top-down!

Fundamentally, you need to take the approach that just makes the most sense in that circumstance. Quickly think about the key assumptions / numbers required and whether you 1) Know them or 2) Can reasonably estimate them. If you can, go ahead!

An Example

He's a Q&A for a great market sizing question here asking to estimate # of electric charging stations in a city in 10 years:

https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-would-you-solve-this-market-sizing-question-from-roland-berger-7631

This one could be answered top-down (as I did) by estimating population of the city, # of drivers/ cars, etc. etc.

OR, it could be answered bottom-up by estimating # of stations you see per block (or # of gas/petrol tanks), % increase this might be over time (or # of EV stations that would be needed per gas tank given EV stations take 10 times as long), and # of blocks you'd estimate the city to have.

Take a look here for additional practice! https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/brain-teaser/intermediate/taxis-in-manhattan-market-sizing-229

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Cristian
Coach
on Sep 11, 2023
#1 rated McKinsey Coach

Hi Gee,

Lots of useful answers below already, so just wanted to add another resource to help you understand different structuring methodologies:

  • Free Guide: Mastering Structuring & Brainstorming


Best,
Cristian

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

Practicing for interviews? Check out my latest case based on a first-round MBB interview >>> SoyTechnologies  

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Andi
Coach
on Sep 02, 2023
BCG 1st & Final Round interviewer | Personalized prep with >95% success rate | 7yrs coaching | Experienced Hires

Hi Gbenga,

suggest you give it a try and post your proposed approach - will make it a bit easier for coaches to give you concrete feedback.

Generally speaking, this type of question will require a demand-sided market sizing approach, where you should segment the UK market (user base) into different customer groups and gauge their resp. appetite to buy.

If you'd like to learn how to do sizings both on the supply and demand side, don't hesitate to reach out to me or other coaches. 

Hope this helps.

Regards, Andi

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Deleted user
on Sep 03, 2023

Hi Gee,

There are different ways of breaking this down, but I would do roughly something like this:

  • Start with the UK population
  • Estimate # of car owners (some factors you might want to consider include family size, age, income here)
  • Estimate how many of them are going to be buying a car each year

If you try to lay out your approach to this question, we can offer some feedback!

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Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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