Hello,
This is my first post on the community Q&A.
I was asked this question during the last round interview at a consulting firm. Any insights?
Thanks!
Hello,
This is my first post on the community Q&A.
I was asked this question during the last round interview at a consulting firm. Any insights?
Thanks!
To answer this, you need to solve 2 questions:
1. How many haircuts are done by barbers each year in NYC. Consider:
2. How many “hairs” can an average barbershop handle:
You divide 1 by 2 and you get the number of barbershops.
Then you do a sanity check. Considering NYC number of streets, or neighborhoods, or blocks, think about how many barbershops per block does that number represent, and see if that is an acceptable order of magnitude. (note: this would also be a good and efficient method of estimating the number of barbershops, i.e., consider an average number of barbershops per street and then multiply by the number of streets, but it is usually less precise).
Dear Yosra,
there are many ways to structure this question. For example try to figure out what the demand would be and go from there. For example, population in NYC> percentage who need a haircut>how often they need that to adjust for yearly figures> percentage who go to a barbershop to do so instead of getting the haircut another way>average amount a barbershop can serve based on working hours and staff level and time for different types of haircuts>deduce from this the amount of barbershops needed.
How many barbershops are there in NYC?
1) population of NYC
2) how many areas in NYC
3) how many barbershops in each area approximately
The case interviews have a few common formats:
1) Context business cases:
2) Estimation cases (or market size)
Your case “babershops are there in NYC” is an example of an estimation case. I couple of tips for this type is:
You’re not expected to know the answers, but instead to show a logical way to deduce it. Your approach needs to be reasonable, include key factors that would affect the size of the market, and your assumptions need to show good business judgment.
tip #1: Explain your rationale clearly
The interviewer wants to see how you break down a problem and if you can structure your thoughts in a hypothesis driven way.
I will assume that the NYC population, and then assume that only a % of the population are barber shop potential consumers, which adult males, I will assume that % of the potential consumer actually go to barber shops.. etc etc
tip #2: you don't need to know specific numbers but knowing basic populations numbers helps + round your numbers
Nobody expects that you will know the NYC population, but it is expected that you will know that the USA has around 300M habitants, that often the population is 50 male 50 female etc
A good way to practice is to get used to using these macro-demographics numbers and breaking down the number using your hypothesis.
tip #3: Bottom up vs Top down
Top down – Start from the total population and divide your way down to the relevant market.
Bottom up – Start with a single base unit (a typical customer or sale or business outlet) and multiply your up to the entire relevant market.
tip 4#: Ask clarifying questions
Let me know if you need any help preparing for you next interviews
Best
Raquel
Hi Yorsa,
Welcome to the Q&A!
You'll get the best out of this exercise if you try it yourself and post here for feedback.
How to think about Market Sizing
It's very simple: Do the approach the is the easiest for you given the question.
Are they asking you to estimate something where you don't even know where to begin from the top (maybe you have 0 clue as to the market size of the industry, the GDP of that country, etc. etc.)? Then do bottom-up!
Alternatively, does it seem impossible to do a realistic from-the-ground-up estimation of something (perhaps it requires just far too many steps and assumptions)? Then do top-down!
Fundamentally, you need to take the approach that just makes the most sense in that circumstance. Quickly think about the key assumptions / numbers required and whether you 1) Know them or 2) Can reasonably estimate them. If you can, go ahead!
Remember that there's rarely a "best" answer with market sizing. What's important is that you break down the problem the way it makes sense to you. Importantly, break it down so that the assumptions you make are the ones you're most comfortable in.
For example, do you know all the major brands? Great go with that. Do you understand all the segments of that country's population (either age or wealth or job breakdown)? Go with that. Do you know the total market size of the tourism (or hotel) industry? Then break it down that way.
Some tips:
An Example
Take a look here for additional practice! https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/brain-teaser/intermediate/taxis-in-manhattan-market-sizing-229
And here's a practice Q&A:
This one could be answered top-down (as I did) by estimating population of the city, # of drivers/ cars, etc. etc.
OR, it could be answered bottom-up by estimating # of stations you see per block (or # of gas/petrol tanks), % increase this might be over time (or # of EV stations that would be needed per gas tank given EV stations take 10 times as long), and # of blocks you'd estimate the city to have.