[Healthcare Market sizing Question] Market size for HPV Vaccine?

market size Market sizing
New answer on Dec 31, 2021
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Anonymous A asked on Oct 13, 2019

How would I solve U.S. market size for HPV vaccines?

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Ronny replied on Oct 14, 2019
Life science focused graduate student actively applying for consulting roles

Marke Sizing HPV Vaccine Issue Tree

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Content Creator
updated an answer on Oct 13, 2019
Top rated McKinsey Case & PEI coach/Multiple real offers/McKinsey EM in New York /6 years McKinsey recruiting experience


HPV vaccines are recommended for boys and girls in the US (https://www.cancer.org/latest-news/who-should-get-the-hpv-vaccination-and-why.html) and before they become sexually active. Majority of vaccines are given ages 11 and 12, and the remaining to older teens and some to adults.

Assuming 320M in the US population, 80 yrs life expectancy and uniform distribution this gets us to 4M for each age.

Assuming all boys and girls should get the vaccine, the market size is as follows :

1. For boys and girls currently aged 11 and 12 that is 8M

2. For ages 13-18 - assume that only 50% got vaccinated before 13. Now obviosuly this is an over-simplification, you can also assume a declining ratio (60% at 13 and going down to 30% at 18 yrs who need to get vaccinated).

Total Population 13-18 = 24M and 50% of that is 12M

3. For women adults up to 40 - assume 80% have been vaccinated and 20% need vaccination (if you want a gold star you can take into account that most women have got the vaccine but almost no men have given that previosuly only girls were required to do so and that number now climbs to 80% of women and 0% of men as having the vaccines so 20% of women and 100% of men in this age group are not vaccinated, but this is something you can check with the interviewer)

Population of women only 19 - 40 = 44M, 20% = 9M

Total market size - ~ 29M

Hope that helps,



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Anonymous A on Oct 14, 2019

That's very helpful. Thank you!

Vittorio D. on Oct 12, 2020

Hello Udayan, thanks for the insight. I have a question about your calculation: why are you assuming 100% of people aged 11 AND 12? While I would assume 100% of the people aged 11 (since it is the youngest age at which the vaccine can be taken), I would not assume 100% of people aged 12 as some of them might have taken the vaccine the year before. I would include 12 years old people in your point 2. Am I missing something? thanks!


Udayan on Oct 12, 2020

Hi Vittorio, yes that works and good call on spotting it!

Content Creator
replied on Dec 31, 2021
MBB | 100% personal interview success rate (8/8) and 95% candidate success rate | Personalized interview prep

Hi there,

Providing some market sizing thinking for anyone revisiting this Q&A:

Remember that there's rarely a "best" answer with market sizing. What's important is that you break down the problem the way it makes sense to you. Importantly, break it down so that the assumptions you make are the ones you're most comfortable in.

For example, do you know all the major brands? Great go with that. Do you understand all the segments of that country's population (either age or wealth or job breakdown)? Go with that. Do you know the total market size of the tourism (or hotel) industry? Then break it down that way.

Some tips:

  1. Just like in a case, make sure you understand the question - what are you really being asked to calculate
  2. Decide whether a top-down or bottom-up approach is best
  3. Figure out what you know you know, and what you know you don't know, but could estimate
    1. This helps you determine how to split out buckets
  4. Stay flexible - you can start with a "high-level" market sizing, but gauge your interviewers reaction....if it looks like they want you to do more...then go along level deeper in terms of your splits
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