Hi,
There are multiple sources:
- Population - you simply divide the population by the average life expectancy and then multiply by 20
- Tourists - you assume that every 5th person you see in Dubai is a tourist and out of them x% are 0-20
Best
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Thank you, Vlad! In the case of the UAE where the population is significantly young, assuming an equal age distribution won't work. How would you change your approach?
That is relevant information - just adjust with what you think is most reasonable. For example distribute population 0-20 as being 30% of the population vs 25% if you take a life expectancy of 80
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Global
Curious about how others would solve this question: What is the number of people aged between 0-20 in Dubai.
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For this, I would lay the structure and assumption down as follows
# of people aged between 0-20 = (Total Population of Dubai / Avg. life span of the local population or the world) * # of years (0-20)
Key assumption, people distribution of ages are even across the board. Stating, that there are the same number of people at every 1 year.
Hence,
# of people aged between 0-20 = ( (assumed) 3.5M / (assumed) 75 ) * 20
= 0.93M
Note, for this market sizing you should be aware of what the population of Dubai is, or approximate of it. Also 75-80 years is the average lifespan globally, this can vary by region.
The structure mentioned in the previous answer is a good approach for most of the cities/countries. However, for hot tourist destinations like Dubai, one needs to consider the number of tourists that visit that particular city/country in a year.
On average, Dubai gets 12 million tourists (nearly four times the population of Dubai). If you use the similar approach and add that number to the one mentioned in the other answer, you arrive at the approximate number. Feel free to change assumptions regarding age distribution and life expectancy of tourists (Wouldn't change by more than 10-15% anyway).
