I tried to solve this estimation/market sizing case.
I'll show you the though my process but this question is not so easy to answer in my opinion. I would appreciate criticism! :) My country is Germany.
My basic starting points:
- There are pipes for sewage and water
- There are pipes for rainwater on houses, to make it easier I will not bother with those
- Some industries use pipes for transportation of their goods (e.g. oil) but those make up a small part of the whole pipes used and therefore I will not bother about those
- Calculate pipes for private housing and industrial usage
- Dont forget the connection inbetween households/industry
There is no point on a calculation based on house, since houses consist of a no. of households. Therefore it's fine to only calculate on households (hh) in the first place.
We want to calculate the m of pipes per hh in Germany and add that with the m industry pipes and add that up with No. of m used for connection hh and industry.
M of pipes per household:
- No. of people in Germany * No of People per hh = No of hh in Ger ~81 Mio. : 3People = 27 Mio
- No of hh in Ger * m of pipes (water) per hh = m of pipes (water) in germany for all hh 27 Mio. * 10 m = 270 Mio. m
- HH consists of sewage and water pipes therefore take times 2: 270 Mio. m * 2 = 540 Mio. m ~ 550 Mio. m
- => M of pipes per hh in germany = 550 Mio. m
Calculate m of pipes for Industry:
- No. of hh that equals a industrial building * m of pipes (water & sewage) per hh = m of pipes for industrial bulding 2,5 * 20m = 50m (2,5 since we only bother on sanitary rooms)
- No. of hh * relation No. of industrial building to hh = No. of industrial buildings in ger 27 Mio * (1/9) = 3 Mio.
- => M. of pipes in Industry = 3 Mio. * 50m = 150 Mio. m
M of connections (city, land, industry):
- Percantage hh in cities * No. of hh * m for connection = 0,7 * 27 Mio. * 5m = 90 Mio. m (in cities we have 2,5 hh per House therefore 5 m (*2,5 = 15m) seems like a good estimation for connection houses
- Same for Land: 0,3 * 27 Mio. 10 m = 90 Mio. m
- Industrial: No. of Buildings * m for connection = 3 Mio * 40 m = 120 Mio m.
- => add up = 300 Mio m.
Therefore we have 1 Billion m of pipes in germany (550+150+300).
I always used easy numbers for example. In your opinion did I simplify the case to much? Do you have a faster / easier way to make a good estimation?
E.g. I did not even bother on m for connection inbetween cities etc.
Thanks a lot