Are you talking about revenue or demand for trucks in the US?
Assuming Demand, we can estimate it in the following way:
Our Goal: #trucks sold / year
- #trucks = (trucks/person) * (total amount of people)
- = 1 truck per 100 person (assumption) * 300M people
- = 3M truck in total
- Life-span of trucks are approximately 10 years
- #truck / lifespan
- = 3M/10y = 300K/y (this is your answer if you believe the market is steady)
- If you want to integrate a trend:
- say we have a positive trend in sales because oil prices are dropping globally.
- Approximately 5% per year, so 5% of the total amount will increase
- = 300K*5% = 15K
- Answer of 300K + 15K = 315K
- The answer would be: In average 315K trucks will be sold per year in the US.
If you are talking about revenue, assuming the retail price of a truck is about 30K. So revenue generated per year would be $9.45M.