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# Truck market in US

Case Market sizing McKinsey casing summer internship
Recent activity on Nov 10, 2017
2.9 k Views

any thoughts?

(edited)

## Overview of answers

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Hey there,
Are you talking about revenue or demand for trucks in the US?

Assuming Demand, we can estimate it in the following way:

Our Goal: #trucks sold / year

1. #trucks = (trucks/person) * (total amount of people)
• = 1 truck per 100 person (assumption) * 300M people
• = 3M truck in total
2. Life-span of trucks are approximately 10 years
3. #truck / lifespan
• = 3M/10y = 300K/y (this is your answer if you believe the market is steady)
4. If you want to integrate a trend:
• say we have a positive trend in sales because oil prices are dropping globally.
• Approximately 5% per year, so 5% of the total amount will increase
• = 300K*5% = 15K
• Answer of 300K + 15K = 315K
5. The answer would be: In average 315K trucks will be sold per year in the US.

If you are talking about revenue, assuming the retail price of a truck is about 30K. So revenue generated per year would be \$9.45M.

Cheers,
D

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