Hi, share your knowledge with the community!

Market Sizing Question (interview): Sales of Lipstick in the US

Sahil

Estimate the total industry wide sales of lipstick in the U.S.

(edited)

  • Upvotes
  • Date ascending
  • Date descending
Sahil replied on 09/21/2017

This is how I solved it.

Clarifying questions:

  1. Does industry wide sale of lipstick mean # units sold or $ value of the units sold?
  2. Are we interested in just the market size or the number of units sold annually?

( NO OF UNITS SOLD ANNUALLY IS PROBLEMATIC - will cover that later )

Data:

US population: 320 million

Average Life expectancy : 80 million

Approach:

I believe as per the question we are suppose to find the market size in terms of number of units sold. ( not annually; however I will mention the method to solve it annually )

  1. We split the entire female population into age groups.
  2. We assume an average number of lipsticks owned by the women in those age groups.
  3. Multiply that with the population present in the group and get the # lipsticks owned by the females in that group.
  4. We total the above to get the total market size.

Math:

No of woman in USA belonging to every age group = 320 million / ( 80 * 2) = 2 million woman in every age group.

Assuming that only women of the age 16 and above use make up we have a 130 million woman who use make up.

Age Average No of lipsticks / woman Group Population No of Lipsticks

16 to 25 10 2 million * 10 2 million*10*10

26 to 35 8 2 million * 10 2 million*10*6

36 to 60 6 2 million * 25 2 million*25*6

61 to 80 4 2 million * 20 2 millino*20*4

Total of the last Column = 820 million lipsticks.

Now if we were trying to find the annual number of lipsticks sold in the US then things get tricky.

If a person just uses one lipstick then the answer is simple :

Total market size / time it takes to finish the lipstick

However in reality women have multiple lipstick options and they dont constantly use one lipstick. Therefore, the time it takes to finish one lipstick increases significantly. Assuming that women apply the different color of lipsticks they own one after the other on different days , that every single women purchased her entire collection on the same day ( that is all lipsticks owned by a single women have the same starting point) , that all lipsticks are of the same size and that it takes roughly 3 months to finish one lipstick. We can estimate how long it would take one women to finish her entire collection.

Once we know that for each group we can then calculate the weighted average of the time taken. This way we will have just one timeline for the entire female population. Then we use

No of lipsticks sold per year =

Total market share / weighted average time taken to finish the lipstick.

NOTE: I am not sure of my final Solution. These are just my estimates.

If you find a mistake in my solution or would liek to further discuss the solutuion please do let me know.

Anonymous A replied on 09/21/2017

[Pop US] * [% Female] * [% use makeup] * [% use lipstick] * [# of lipsticks they own] * [1/avg lifetime before finished or stop using] * [$ per lipstick]

E.g.

300m people * 50% female * about 60% would use make up * 70% use lipstick * average of 3 lipsticks they own * 1/1 per year as last long * $10 = ~ 1.9B USD per year in sales for consumers.

We can then extrapolate and add in another ~10-20% to account for business use such as make up artists, perhaps males, etc. Giving us between 2-2.5B USD per year.

If too low, perhaps the price I set per piece is wrong, but something you can check with interviewer.

Anonymous A replied on 09/20/2017

Write down your own attempt as well and where you are stuck.

Related BootCamp article(s)

Important Facts

It's essential to know some key figures regarding geographies, population, economies for your case interviews. We summarized them for you here.

9 Comment(s)

Market Sizing

Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and reasoning skills. The interviewer evaluates your structure, numbers-handling and business sense.

16 Comment(s)

Getting Up to Speed

In order to repeatedly demonstrate prerequisite skills under the pressure of a real case interview, you need to learn the basics and practice cases.

4 Comment(s)

Related case(s)

Your client, large automotive OEM WyCar, has developed its first fully electric vehicle (EV) and introduced it as a pilot on the Austrian market last year. However, sales have been far below the expected numbers. The management has engaged you to support them in understanding the reasons and advise ... Open whole case

Bain Case: Old Winery

Solved 10.5k times
4.4 5 280
| Rating: (4.4 / 5.0)

You have inherited the “Old Winery” from your grandfather, a winery which has been family owned for five generations and can be dated back to the 16th century. Half of the eleven hectares are used to grow white grapes, the other half to grow red grapes. They are grown in the conventional way, i.e ... Open whole case

Onlinestar, an online retailer of furniture and garden products (core business), has grown significantly in recent years as a result of an expansion of its product portfolio. The company mainly imports goods from Chinese manufacturers but also operates its own production of cat lavatories (special b ... Open whole case

Nutripremium

Solved 39.1k times
4.5 5 1148
| Rating: (4.5 / 5.0) |

Nutripremium is a very well-known premium nutrition food company in Europe (€1 billion revenue last year). It is based in Spain and has an excellent market share not only in its home country but also in Portugal, France, Italy and Germany. Nutripremium has two main lines of products: Vitam ... Open whole case

Children vaccine

Solved 36.1k times
4.4 5 1134
| Rating: (4.4 / 5.0) |

Beyer, one of the biggest pharmaceutical companies in the world, just invented a very reliable vaccine against Chickenpox, a disease that affects children in the age from 2 to 16 years. Beyer came to you wondering what their potential sales in Europe in the first year would be if they launched th ... Open whole case