Market Sizing: number of visitors in an airport in one day

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Market sizing: number of visitors in an airport in one day?

on Aug 26, 2019
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2.2 k
on Aug 26, 2019
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Hi Kiga,

All your questions can be answered in similar ways, I'll answer this one and I'm sure you'll be able to figure out the others. This is how I would have solved it:

- Assume only people that have to take a plane/landing in the airport are considered (so not considering drivers that are coming to pick up a business person or parents coming to say hello to their relatives going away)

- Divide flights in international, national and transatlantic

- Assume the number of each plane arriving and going per day (these numbers will change based on the specific airport you are going to choose)

- Assume the capacity per plane and % of actual occupancy (e.g., morning national flights could be full in the mornings because of business travelers, but half full in the afternoon because mainly tourists going from one region to the other will fly on that)

- Assume a % of people landing from a plane at your airport (per type of flight) and taking another plane from there (because they are going to be the same people, so you will not want to count them twice)

- Multiply everything together per national, international and transatlantic flights, sum everything and you'll have the number of people that would have put their foot on the airport on that day

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1 define the term "visitors", for example, does it only refer to passengers, or airport working staff also need to be considered.

2 segment visitors into three groups (by their objective of visiting): A passengers B friends/ family that come together with passengers C airport working staff;

3 group A guesstimation: from supply side: number of flight that takes on/land in one day * average number of seats per flight * attendance rate (first and third factor could be further segmented according to flight take-off time); or from demand side (harder than supply side): people who leave(tourist leave+citizen leave) + people who arrive(visitor+citizen come home), for citizen part, we could use total number of citizens * percentage, and could further segment with age/ career...

4 group B guesstimation: segment group A's number by age, then for each group, use the "accompany number * passenger number" method

5 group C guesstimation: independant of group A and B; list out departments in airport, and then guesstimate how much staff there will be in each of them

6 add up three numbers: A+B+C; then it will be the result

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Giulia gave the best answer


McKinsey Business Analyst | 3+ years Experience | MBA at LBS
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