Market sizing: How many visitors visit Central Park New York each day?

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Edited on Aug 26, 2021
3 Answers
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Anonymous A asked on Aug 25, 2021

Hi, 

I tried both top-down and bottom-up approaches, please let me know if you have any comments or suggestions? Thanks.


Top-down
- Population of New York City 8M 

- On average one person goes to park once a month

- There are 4 attractions for entertainment in New York that has same attractiveness as central park (e.g. museums, shows, others) 
 

- Local visitors represent 50% of the total visitors, the other 50% are tourists 

8M x 1/30 x 1/4 x 2 =~ 133,000/day

(~ 48.7M per year, close to recorded data.)

 

Bottom-up

I can't seem to find a way to estimate from the bottom-up.

=======Update================

I have taken the advice and re-done the bottom-up approach from what I see and know:

Daily visitors = Visitors/hour x opening hours

Visitors/hour = capacity x occupancy rate x (1 hour/ average time spent)

Capacity = size of central park x areas available for people %(e.g.  exl lakes, trees - ⅓) / average space between people

Size of central park (from what I can see) =  from 59th Street to 110th Street x between 5th Avenue and Central Park West = 3.5km2

Average space between people = I see one person in an area of 50m2 (like my flat size)

Occupancy rate = can differ from seasons, weathers, weekdays/weekends, but on average 50%

Opening hours = 18 (6am - 10pm) 

Daily visitors = (3.5km2 x ⅓ )/50m2 x 50% X (1hour/30min) X 18 hours = 23,333 x 50% x 2 x 18 = 420,000

(this is significantly larger than real data, but I like the approach. appreciate any further comments. Thanks a lot!)

 

(edited)

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Best answer
Pedro
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replied on Aug 25, 2021
30% off in March 2024 | Bain | EY-Parthenon | Roland Berger | Market Sizing | DARDEN MBA

Bottom up: think about the park size and how many people can fit in there at any given moment, how long do they stay and occcupation levels throughout the week.
 

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Ian
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updated an answer on Aug 26, 2021
#1 BCG coach | MBB | Tier 2 | Digital, Tech, Platinion | 100% personal success rate (8/8) | 95% candidate success rate

Hi there,

Your top-down is complete guess-work. You've just made up numbers. This is not the point of market sizing! You need to estimate based on your knowledge of the world. As such, you need to break down the problem in things you have a better idea of.

Personally, I think bottom up makes more sense. Think about how many people you've seen there on an “average” day in x area. Then, extrapolate that out by the whole area of central park and different times (day vs night, summer v winter, etc.)

Take a look here for some addition practice! https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/brain-teaser/intermediate/taxis-in-manhattan-market-sizing-229

(edited)

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Udayan
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updated an answer on Aug 25, 2021
Top rated Case & PEI coach/Multiple real offers/McKinsey EM in New York /6 years McKinsey recruiting experience

Your approach is fine, I would also emphasize how you got to the assumptions. E.g., 50% locals vs tourists, or one person goes once a month. You also need to account for things like why people go (it is not just other attractions - what if you have a dog or for exercise etc.).

Bottoms up here may not be as relevant.

Udayan

 

(edited)

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Pedro gave the best answer

Pedro

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