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Anonymous A
on Aug 23, 2024
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Market sizing Building a mall Profit

Hello everyone,

During an interview, my friend was asked to market size the returns on building a mall on a given piece of land. How should I approach such a case (end to end answers are highly appreciated). Also if you can point out to similar case questions, it'd be great.

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Top answer
Hagen
Coach
edited on Aug 26, 2024
#1 recommended coach | >95% success rate | 8+ years consulting, 8+ years coaching and 7+ years interviewing experience

Hi there,

I would be happy to share my thoughts on your question:

  • First of all, can you please provide a proposal that I can review?
  • Moreover, please keep in mind that most major strategy consulting firms have not used standalone market size estimations for a long time. While this does not mean it never happens, this type of case study question may not be very meaningful for both the candidate and interviewer, as only a few skills are being tested.
  • That being said, simpler market size estimations may still be a part of a case study, for instance when estimating the revenues of the client is required.

If you would like a more detailed discussion on how to best prepare for your upcoming interviews, please don't hesitate to contact me directly.

Best,

Hagen

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Alessa
Coach
on Aug 26, 2024
xMcKinsey & Company | xBCG | +200 individual & group coachings | feel free to schedule a 15 min intro call for free

Hey, 

Market sizing for a case like building a mall involves estimating the potential profitability of the mall. The goal is to determine whether the investment in the mall will yield attractive returns. Here's an end-to-end approach to tackling this type of case:

1. Understand the Objective

  • Clarify the Goal: Confirm if the goal is to estimate total revenue, profit margins, or ROI (Return on Investment). Understand the scope: is it the first year of operations or a longer period?
  • Key Metrics: Revenue, Costs (operational, construction), Profit, ROI, Occupancy rates.

2. Clarify Assumptions and Gather Information

  • Location: Understand the location's demographics, population size, and economic status.
  • Size of the Mall: Clarify the size (square footage) of the mall.
  • Types of Stores: Ask about the mix of anchor stores (big department stores), smaller retail shops, food courts, entertainment, etc.
  • Target Audience: Understand who the mall will cater to—income levels, shopping preferences, etc.

3. Estimate the Revenue

  • Foot Traffic: Estimate the number of people who will visit the mall daily, weekly, and annually. Base this on the population in the catchment area (area within a reasonable distance of the mall) and comparable malls.
  • Average Spend per Visitor: Estimate how much an average visitor will spend per visit. This depends on the types of stores in the mall and the target audience.
  • Revenue from Different Streams:
    • Retail Space Leasing: Calculate the revenue from leasing out retail spaces. This involves estimating the rental price per square foot and the occupancy rate.
    • Parking Fees: If applicable, estimate revenue from parking.
    • Other Income: Revenue from advertising, events, or partnerships.

4. Estimate Costs

  • Capital Expenditure (CapEx): Cost of constructing the mall, which could include land acquisition, construction, permits, and fees.
  • Operational Expenditure (OpEx): Ongoing costs such as utilities, maintenance, security, staffing, marketing, and management fees.
  • Financing Costs: Interest on loans, if any, used to finance the construction.

5. Calculate Profitability

  • e.g., Gross Profit, ROI, Breakeven 

Other Examples from my cases I teach: 

  1. Estimating Market Size for a New Cinema in a City
  2. Building a New Amusement Park

Hope this helps! :)
BR Alessa

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Anonymous B
on Aug 27, 2024

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Benjamin
Coach
on Sep 02, 2024
Ex-BCG Principal | 8+ years consulting experience in SEA | BCG top interviewer & top performer

Hi,

 

For this, I think its important to clarify if its asking you to estimate Profit, or just Revenue.

For a mall - the bulk of the income i would argue would come from the leasing/rental fees of the tenants. 

To be fully MECE, consider also breaking down and accounting for all the different streams of revenue they could get - including event fees, advertising etc.

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Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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