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Market size of new containers (land transportation) in China

Anonymous A

Got this question in a recent interview. And containers replacing old ones are excluded.

I was really stuck there and in the end started from GDP and growth rate.

Really curious how you would approach this..

Wouter replied on 11/05/2017

mmm, difficult one, I would certainly hope that they would give a bit more data.

Market size of new containers = #new containers sold x $new containers

#new containers = extra volume needed to be transported / volume of container

Volume of container = size of market today/#containers now

Extra volume needed to be transported = volume predicted for future – volume needed now

Volume predicted for future = (transportation segment growth%+100%) x volume needed now

Volume needed now = transportation segment now/#containers now

Transportation segment growth% = % growth of GDP of China x correlating factor

Correlating factor = I would guess 1:1 since I would assume that the growth of China's GDP is heavily depended on manufactured goods which need to be transported.

GDP of China = let’s take 10%

Transportation segment now = ask? Link also back to GDP?

#containers now = ask? If we don't have data for China, maybe for other countries and compare the market sizes.

Not a straightforward one to me, I'm curious to the other answers.

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