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3

How to estimate the number of taxis in Köln ?

How to estimate the number of taxis in Köln? Given that the number of residents in Koln is 1M.

Thanks!

How to estimate the number of taxis in Köln? Given that the number of residents in Koln is 1M.

Thanks!

(edited)

3 answers

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Hi, I would estimate this way. I hope it helps.

- (N° of residents * % residents no driving license * % residents no car * % residents no public transport) * N° drive over year / AVG N° of passages each taxi

- N° of residents = 1M

- % residents no driving license = 1/2 (I am assuming 4 clusters of people (0-20years old; 21-40 years old; 41-60 years old and +61 years old) and I exclude 0-20 (too young) and +61 (too old))

- % residents no car = 50% (I am assuming that in a normal family, like mine, we have 1 car every two people

- % residents prefer taxi than public transport = 50% (I am assuming two segments: the one who takes taxi and the one who takes public transport)

- N° drive over year = 1 (1 drive each week) * 52 weeks = 52 (round to 50 for simplicity)

- THEREFORE, the upper part is = 1M * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 50 = 6250K people (market demand)

- AVG N° of passages each taxi = AVG time each drive * AVG n° people each drive * Daily working hours * 310 (day in a year, 365 - 52 weeks (1 free day a week) = 312, but 310 for simplicity)

- Daily working hours = 8 h

- AVG time each drive = 20 min = 1/3 h

- AVG n° people each drive = 2

- THEREFORE, the lower part equals to = 8 * 3 * 2 * 360 = 48 * 310 = 14880 (I will round it to 15K)

- THEREFORE, to serve 6250K potential customers, given that a single taxi can serve 15K of them daily) = 6250K / 15K = roughly 415 taxis

Hi, I would estimate this way. I hope it helps.

- (N° of residents * % residents no driving license * % residents no car * % residents no public transport) * N° drive over year / AVG N° of passages each taxi

- N° of residents = 1M

- % residents no driving license = 1/2 (I am assuming 4 clusters of people (0-20years old; 21-40 years old; 41-60 years old and +61 years old) and I exclude 0-20 (too young) and +61 (too old))

- % residents no car = 50% (I am assuming that in a normal family, like mine, we have 1 car every two people

- % residents prefer taxi than public transport = 50% (I am assuming two segments: the one who takes taxi and the one who takes public transport)

- N° drive over year = 1 (1 drive each week) * 52 weeks = 52 (round to 50 for simplicity)

- THEREFORE, the upper part is = 1M * 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 * 50 = 6250K people (market demand)

- AVG N° of passages each taxi = AVG time each drive * AVG n° people each drive * Daily working hours * 310 (day in a year, 365 - 52 weeks (1 free day a week) = 312, but 310 for simplicity)

- Daily working hours = 8 h

- AVG time each drive = 20 min = 1/3 h

- AVG n° people each drive = 2

- THEREFORE, the lower part equals to = 8 * 3 * 2 * 360 = 48 * 310 = 14880 (I will round it to 15K)

- THEREFORE, to serve 6250K potential customers, given that a single taxi can serve 15K of them daily) = 6250K / 15K = roughly 415 taxis

Isn't 1 drive per week a small number? — Ibrahim T on Feb 09, 2021

Number of residents(1M) * avg taxi rides per residents per month (1)= total demand of rides (1M)

avg. rides per taxi in one 8h shift (15)* 2 shifts per day * 30 days per month = total rides offererd (900)

1m/900 = 1111 or 1100 taxis in Cologne

Number of residents(1M) * avg taxi rides per residents per month (1)= total demand of rides (1M)

avg. rides per taxi in one 8h shift (15)* 2 shifts per day * 30 days per month = total rides offererd (900)

1m/900 = 1111 or 1100 taxis in Cologne

[Pop Koln] * [% adult] * [% drivers license] * [% work] * [% work in transportation] * [% work in people transportation] * [% work for taxi company] * [1/# people operating under the same taxi]

[Pop Koln] * [% adult] * [% drivers license] * [% work] * [% work in transportation] * [% work in people transportation] * [% work for taxi company] * [1/# people operating under the same taxi]

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