Hi Eli,
Agree with Andrea. You can consider the following macro elements to structure this problem. Ideally you would like to structure in a table, with each variable as a column and each group (household and businesses) as a row:
- A) Groups who buy the product. For mattresses:
- Households
- Businesses (eg Hotels, Hospitals). Will keep hotels only for simplicity for the remaining. In the actual interview, you should consider the other groups as well.
- B) Number of units per group. For mattresses:
- Households: 320M/3~110M
- Businesses (Hotels only for simplicity): 50k
- C) % in the group that use the product. For mattresses:
- Households: 99% (exclude some thin subsegments with waterbed or similar)
- Businesses (Hotels only for simplicity): 100%
- D) Number of units per group that use the product. Just multiply B*C:
- Households: ~105M
- Businesses (Hotels only for simplicity): 50k
- E) Number of products needed per group
- Households: 2 (1 for parents and 1 for child)
- Businesses (Hotels only for simplicity): 200. Could average small (50 rooms), medium (300 rooms) and large (2000 rooms) hotels, weighting more the small and medium.
- F) Number bought in one year. Assuming 10 years replacement: multiply D*E/10
- Households: 21M
- Businesses (Hotels only for simplicity): 1M
- G ) Total = 22M
Checking online, the actual number is 35M as for the following link, due to the fact we did not include hospitals and similar other facilities.
https://business.highbeam.com/industry-reports/wood/mattresses-foundations-convertible-beds
In case you don't know it, to estimate the number of hotels the easiest thing would to
- estimate the demand of rooms needed per day
- estimate the supply per room per day of the average hotel (200 as for our previous estimate)
and divide the first by the second. The full solution for that would be good for a new question ;)
Best,
Francesco