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Total Number of Gas Station/Restaurant Question
Anonymous A
on May 22, 2017
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Hello I have a big problem with market sizing is there any structure to respect ? How can I improve my skills in market sizing ?

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Top answer
Vlad
Coach
on May 24, 2017
McKinsey / Accenture Alum / Got all BIG3 offers / Harvard Business School

Hi,

1) First of all, there are 2 ways to structure market sizing:

  • Formula - basically a math formula to come up with a solution. The problem with the formula is that it is easy to forget something or get lost.
  • Tree - same as with regular cases you build a tree. A very simple example: you need to calculate the number of dogs on manhattan. A number of dogs = share of households having a dog * # of households. # of households = population / average household size. In the end, you'll have a pyramid where you have to fill the numbers on the base of the pyramid. This approach is much easier and help you track all the numbers

2) You should learn the key market sizing techniques:

  • Making assumptions based on personal experiences (Use the example of your house where out of 100 apt-s 10 have dogs)
  • Adjusting numbers (NY is a busy city thus fewer people have dogs)
  • Sanity check - try to apply your calculations to real environment
  • etc.

3) You should learn the key tools:

  • Using age even age split (suppose life expectancy is 80 years. Assuming even age split we have 4 mln people in US of each age group)
  • Using 80/20 split (suppose 20% people earn 80% wealth and the average salary is xx...)
  • Using approximations (Length of NY-SF flight and plane speed to calculate US length)
  • etc.

4) Learn key numbers: populations, gas price, gas consumption, Boeing speed and nmber of seats, average salary, # of gates in the airport, GDP growth rate, inflation, etc.

5) Practice 10-15 cases and you'll be fine

Feel free to PM for clarifications

Good Luck!

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1 comment
Olu
on Jun 01, 2017
Hello Victoria great break down. I am just curious how you got 4mln for each age group? I would think if we have a population of 320M and life expectancy is 80 years, we would have 8 sub groups ( 0-10, 10-20...70-80) and as such each group would have 320M/8groups which should be 40M/group. Contrarily, if we needed to know the amount of people that are say 5,10 or 15yrs old and we carry the same even split assumption, then 40M/10ages which will be 4M each.
Anonymous G
on May 22, 2017

Hi there,

My experience is that you need to practice and in everyday life there are plenty of opportunities to do so.

when you are traveling to work/institute: how busses are there in the city, how many bus stations, how many bus lines, etc....

Out in the evening in some bar/cafe: how many people visit that place every day, every week every month, how much bewereges are consumed, how many similar palces are there in the city, etc...

etc. etc.

First time it will be kind of strange and you will think 'what the hell I know' but you will get better with practice. If you would do it with somebody else will be funnier and more effective :)

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Coach
on May 23, 2017
Ex-Accenture Strategy Consultant, Career Coach (5yrs)

Hi,

Usually students struggle because no one has previously explained the basic principles. It makes you panic every time you see a arket sizing question and feel like it is a lot worse than it actually is.

The basic premise of these types of questions is: what is the £/$ value so demand or population size of using a specific product. I like the toothbrush example.

Let's say there are 10mn people in London and 90% use a toothbrush. That is 9mn toothbushes being used, now let's say at a price of £2 per toothbrush, London market size is £18mn.

The above is very basic and there are lots of factors to add. But hopefully this helps as the starting point. The rest is additional info and 'colour' to the story (growth, etc.).

Hope this helps, let me know if you want to practise these.

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Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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