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Anonymous A
on Oct 14, 2019
Global
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[Healthcare Market sizing Question] Market size for cancer immunotherapy

How can I conduct market sizing for cancer immunotherapy? I think I have to add the segmentation of looking at cancer -> Cancer segments that can be treated with immunotherapy but I'm not sure if this goes first than the cancer diagnosed rates

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Top answer
Udayan
Coach
on Oct 14, 2019
Top rated Case & PEI coach/Multiple real offers/McKinsey EM in New York /12 years recruiting experience

This question can be very complicated without sufficient context setting

Immunotherapy is not indicated for all types of cancers and for the ones it is indicated for you typically need to test for biomarkers present to see if a patient is eligible. The % of population that has the biomarker differs for each type of cancer and each drug

In addition, current treatment protocol differs by segment - for example it is not always recommended as a first line treatment for all cancers, and often comes as 2nd line

One way to estimate the market size here is to

  • See which cancers can currently be treated with immunotherapy
  • Estimate incidence rates for these cancers by stage
  • Estimate the % of instances that can be treated with immuno therapy
    • This varies by cancer
    • Varies by stage of diagnosis
    • And requires the presence of a biomarker
  • The above is your addressable market for immunotherapy
  • The revenue model here is very tricky - each country has its own prices, in the US especially it depends on the contracts you have with the different payors, and treatment can easily go into hundreds of thousands of dollars per patient per year.
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Anonymous B
on Oct 14, 2019

What I would do to approach this problem:

1. Start from population, estimate the amount of population with cancer. I would segment by age because I believe that cancer is much more prevalent in mature ages

2. I probably would've missed the diagnosed rate actually.

3. I would calculate % of people treated by immunotherapy, segmenting by income level since people with lower income will less likely be treated

4. Estimate amount of therapy one person require, probably by frequency (once a week?) and $/week (idk, 1k$?)

5. Calculate the final results

Let me know your thoughts

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Marcus
on Jun 05, 2023

What promising cancer therapies, such as immunotherapy or genetic approaches, offer new opportunities in the fight against cancer cells, and what clinical studies are exploring these areas to develop new drugs and therapeutic strategies?

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Vernan
on Jun 26, 2023

Fenbendazole may sensitize tumors to radiation therapy https://www.fenbendazole.org/2019/12/19/panacur-c-dog-dewormer-for-cancer/ .A canine dewormer can be a significant option before and during radiation therapy. It sensitizes cancer cells to treatment in a manner similar to taxane chemotherapeutic agents. I also want to note that this is one of the best drugs at the moment.

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Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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