[Healthcare Market sizing Question] Market size for cancer immunotherapy

Anonymous A asked on Oct 14, 2019 - 2 answers

How can I conduct market sizing for cancer immunotherapy? I think I have to add the segmentation of looking at cancer -> Cancer segments that can be treated with immunotherapy but I'm not sure if this goes first than the cancer diagnosed rates

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Anonymous B replied on Oct 14, 2019

What I would do to approach this problem:

1. Start from population, estimate the amount of population with cancer. I would segment by age because I believe that cancer is much more prevalent in mature ages

2. I probably would've missed the diagnosed rate actually.

3. I would calculate % of people treated by immunotherapy, segmenting by income level since people with lower income will less likely be treated

4. Estimate amount of therapy one person require, probably by frequency (once a week?) and $/week (idk, 1k$?)

5. Calculate the final results

Let me know your thoughts

Udayan
Expert
replied on Oct 14, 2019
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This question can be very complicated without sufficient context setting

Immunotherapy is not indicated for all types of cancers and for the ones it is indicated for you typically need to test for biomarkers present to see if a patient is eligible. The % of population that has the biomarker differs for each type of cancer and each drug

In addition, current treatment protocol differs by segment - for example it is not always recommended as a first line treatment for all cancers, and often comes as 2nd line

One way to estimate the market size here is to

  • See which cancers can currently be treated with immunotherapy
  • Estimate incidence rates for these cancers by stage
  • Estimate the % of instances that can be treated with immuno therapy
    • This varies by cancer
    • Varies by stage of diagnosis
    • And requires the presence of a biomarker
  • The above is your addressable market for immunotherapy
  • The revenue model here is very tricky - each country has its own prices, in the US especially it depends on the contracts you have with the different payors, and treatment can easily go into hundreds of thousands of dollars per patient per year.

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