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Clara

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5

Estimate the number of whatsapp messages sent per day?

Clarifying Question:

  1. Considering it is for global users across the world

  2. Across mobile platforms (ios and android)

  3. Referring to text messages specifically and not gifs, video or voice calls

Total Messages Sent Per day = Messages sent in Developed world + Developing world + underdeveloped world per day

# of messages sent per day = # of users in every market x average messages sent per user.

World Population 7B, 50% internet penetration → 3.5B

Assuming Whatsapp has 50% penetration in the messaging space → 1.7B users

20% of the world is in developed world, 60% in developing countries, 20% in under developed countries. Assuming the same distribution holds for WhatsApp in these markets

Whatsapp developed user count → 0.2 x 1.7B → 340M users

Whatsapp developed user count → 0.6 x 1.7B → 1B users

Whatsapp developed user count → 0.6 x 1.7B → 340M users

Users in developed countries are reasonable users of WhatsApp but not as strong as developing countries. In general, I would assume 30% of their phone/text conversation happen on whatsapp. Rest happens on iMessage/android SMS, or messenger.

Assuming an average developed country user sends 10 unique messages/day → 3 of them happen on WhatsApp.

Users in developing countries tend to use WhatsApp the most and it accounts for 80% of their conversations. Assuming they send 15 messages per day, 80% of them come on whatsapp → 12 messages.

Users in underdeveloped countries tend to use WhatsApp a lot due to its free nature and it accounts for 80% of their conversations. Assuming they send 5 messages per day, 80% of them come on whatsapp → 4 messages.

Total Messages Sent --> Messages sent in Developed world + Developing world + underdeveloped world per day

→ (340M x 3) + (12x1B) + (340M x 4)

→ 14.4B messages are sent per day on whatsapp

Clarifying Question:

  1. Considering it is for global users across the world

  2. Across mobile platforms (ios and android)

  3. Referring to text messages specifically and not gifs, video or voice calls

Total Messages Sent Per day = Messages sent in Developed world + Developing world + underdeveloped world per day

# of messages sent per day = # of users in every market x average messages sent per user.

World Population 7B, 50% internet penetration → 3.5B

Assuming Whatsapp has 50% penetration in the messaging space → 1.7B users

20% of the world is in developed world, 60% in developing countries, 20% in under developed countries. Assuming the same distribution holds for WhatsApp in these markets

Whatsapp developed user count → 0.2 x 1.7B → 340M users

Whatsapp developed user count → 0.6 x 1.7B → 1B users

Whatsapp developed user count → 0.6 x 1.7B → 340M users

Users in developed countries are reasonable users of WhatsApp but not as strong as developing countries. In general, I would assume 30% of their phone/text conversation happen on whatsapp. Rest happens on iMessage/android SMS, or messenger.

Assuming an average developed country user sends 10 unique messages/day → 3 of them happen on WhatsApp.

Users in developing countries tend to use WhatsApp the most and it accounts for 80% of their conversations. Assuming they send 15 messages per day, 80% of them come on whatsapp → 12 messages.

Users in underdeveloped countries tend to use WhatsApp a lot due to its free nature and it accounts for 80% of their conversations. Assuming they send 5 messages per day, 80% of them come on whatsapp → 4 messages.

Total Messages Sent --> Messages sent in Developed world + Developing world + underdeveloped world per day

→ (340M x 3) + (12x1B) + (340M x 4)

→ 14.4B messages are sent per day on whatsapp

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Best Answer
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Hello PK,

I have alredy answered to some of your questions regarding market sizing, they are truly interesting.

I believe tought you always have the same flaw: you only consider one of the two big segments (personal vs. professional users)

In this case, for instance, you assume they are only private users.

Hope it helps!

Cheers,

Clara

Hello PK,

I have alredy answered to some of your questions regarding market sizing, they are truly interesting.

I believe tought you always have the same flaw: you only consider one of the two big segments (personal vs. professional users)

In this case, for instance, you assume they are only private users.

Hope it helps!

Cheers,

Clara

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Hi,

You forgot that many users use whatsup for business needs as a corporate messenger. You will be surprised how popular it is. So I would increase the usage in developing countries even further making the business usage a separate part of the analysis

Best

Hi,

You forgot that many users use whatsup for business needs as a corporate messenger. You will be surprised how popular it is. So I would increase the usage in developing countries even further making the business usage a separate part of the analysis

Best

(edited)

Hey there,

Just need to remind you that WhatsApp is not officially allowed in China, so you need to deduct 1.4B out of 7.0B of the world population. Otherwise, you will always overestimate the number when you make an assumption on the penetrations later on.

Thanks!

Jing

Hey there,

Just need to remind you that WhatsApp is not officially allowed in China, so you need to deduct 1.4B out of 7.0B of the world population. Otherwise, you will always overestimate the number when you make an assumption on the penetrations later on.

Thanks!

Jing

Hi Jing, thanks for the information. I have done the case myself and I also had the same idea as you. However, my results are very sensitive on the assumption of the # of messages an individual sends per day. My assumption is an average of 20 messages for normal users and 60 messages for individuals that use it for business communications. I would like to see if someone has an idea to provide an estimation which is a little bit more solid. Best — RUBEN on Apr 19, 2020

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Hi,

You are indeed missing out on the business segment. Moreover, this segment consists of two chunks. The first one being automated messages (e.g. airlines sending your boarding pass) and the second is interaction (e.g. customer service).

Hi,

You are indeed missing out on the business segment. Moreover, this segment consists of two chunks. The first one being automated messages (e.g. airlines sending your boarding pass) and the second is interaction (e.g. customer service).

Book a coaching with Antonello

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Hi, I think it is a good approach. Always try to stay in 20 minutes and - if needed - accelerate some estimations by asking to the interviewer

Best,
Antonello

Hi, I think it is a good approach. Always try to stay in 20 minutes and - if needed - accelerate some estimations by asking to the interviewer

Best,
Antonello

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