Clarifying questions and assumptions:
Residential homes in mainland US?
Includes condominiums, single-family homes, no hotels etc.
Includes homes for rental and self own
Not including nursing homes
# of houses = Demand in the US/(average number of individuals per house)
Us population with 1-2 homes + US population with 1 house + US population with rental homes
US population 300M
Majority % of the population that are actually homeowners: 20-70
Assuming this since this is the % of users that will actually buy homes and others will stay in them. (Kids under 20 won’t have enough money, will live with parents or most likely in a rental unit. Folks older than 70 usually in nursing homes or their existing houses or rentals)
Avg. US life expectancy = 80 years
The volume of US residents in 20-70: 50/80* 300M → 190M
Top 10% of the population has around 2 homes
Top 40% has at least 1 house
Bottom 50% lives in rental units
Volume of top 10% ~ 19M
Volume of top 40% ~ 76M
Volume of Bottom % ~ 95M
Assuming an average of 3 per household in the US:
Top 10% have: (19M/3)*2 ~ 13M homes
Top 40% have: 25M homes
Bottom 50% need: 31M homes
Thus total homes: ~ 70M
This number seems lower than the actual number of homes which is approximately 120M. One reason could be that I underestimated the number of homes owned by people above 70 and also a lot of extra homes that are created as condominiums and rental property. Anything I can change in my assumptions or methodology?