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Anonymous A
on Mar 14, 2020
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Estimate the demand for plastic bags in the US.

Hello! I was wondering how you would tackle this question. I considered only businesses that use plastic bags, but I do not think that is inclusive enough.

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Coach
edited on Mar 20, 2020
McKinsey / ex-Interviewer at McKinsey / I will coach you to rock those interviews

Hi!

I would go from the consumer perspective:

  • Approximately 300 Mio people in the US
  • Out of them: 75% who go to the stores (total population divided into 4 age groups: 0-20; 20-40; 40-60; 60-80 -> those who are 20 to 80 go to the stores) = 225 Mio
  • I would divide those 225 Mio into urban (80% = 180 Mio) and rural (20% = 45 Mio) because they have a different frequency of going to the stores and different demand for plastic bags
  • We could assume urbanites go to the stores at least several times a week (buying small quantities of food), let’s say 3 times using on average 1 plastic bag per visit = so, 180 Mio * 3 = 540 Mio plastic bags a week for urban population. Multiply it by ~50 weeks in a year and you get = 27 bn plastic bags a year for urban population
  • Rural population visits to the store are probably less frequent, like 1 every two weeks, so we could calculate with 0,5 times a week but they probably use more plastic bags, let’s assume 5. So, 45 Mio * 0,5 times * 5 bags = ~ 112 Mio plastic bags a week. Multiply this by 50 weeks and you get = 5,6 bn plastic bags a year for rural population
  • Overall yearly demand for plastic bags in the US = ~ 33 bn per year, or around 110 plastic bags per capita per year – which sounds realistic.

Hope this helps! If you want to brainstorm more on this feel free to reach out!

Best,
Daniel

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Clara
Coach
on Mar 14, 2020
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Hello!

I would first of all clarify demand from which segments (e.g., consumers, companies, etc.) 

If, for instance, was for consumers, you can try to extrapolate the # of bags you use weekly: 

  • For groceries
  • In stores
  • For storage purposes
  • etc. 

Once you have the number, you can extrapolate to different age groups (e.g., babies and childen won´t barely use any, very elderly people will use less, etc.) 

Cheers, 

Clara

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Anonymous
on Mar 16, 2020
Sounds good, I will practice with this method again. Thank you!
Deleted
Coach
on Jun 29, 2020
FREE 1st session in November | From Lawyer to MBB | Top in FIT | 10x your structuring skills | Message to get Free Prep Checklist

Hi,

I would suggest that you should present your own approach and I would be happy to review. 

Meanwhile please see below my approach to segmentation in market sizing as well as examples of solved cases:

B2C:
-Demographics (Age, education, income, family size, race, gender, occupation, nationality)
-Behavioral (Purchasing behavior, customer journey stage, occasion & timing,
customer loyalty & interest, risk tolerance, user status) 
-Psychographic (Lifestyle, personality traits, values, opinions, interests of consumers) 
-Geographic (Geographical boundaries)

B2B:
-Company characteristics (Industry, company size, number of employees)
-Geography (Geographical boundaries)
-Purchasing Approach (Occasion & timing, customer capabilities, nature of existing relationship) 
-Personal Characteristics (Loyalty, risk attitude, user status)

B2G:
-Demographics  (Type of agency, size of budget, the amount of autonomy) 
-Geographic (Geographical boundaries) 
-Government Tier (Federal , State, Local, Quasi-governmental, International)
-Bid type (Closed, Open)

But sometimes you don’t need to segmentation. Here is an example of case that could be solved with high level top down approach - estimate the size of credit card market in the US:
https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-should-i-approach-the-following-question-estimate-the-market-size-of-credit-cards-in-the-us-6695

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Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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