Consulting Consulting
Consulting Finance General
Login Sign up for free Sign up for free
Consulting Finance General
Community
Meeting Board
Consulting Q&A
Interview Partner
Premium Membership
Coaching
Coaches
Coaching Packages
Consulting Q&A
Resources
Case Interview Basics
Case Library
AI Casebot
Tests & Guides
Mental Math Tool
Stress Questions
Drills
Video Tutorials
Brainteaser
Career
Employers
Career Events
Consulting Jobs
Consulting Blog
Sign up for free
Login
Community
Meeting Board
Consulting Q&A
Interview Partner
Premium Membership
Coaching
Coaches
Coaching Packages
Consulting Q&A
Resources
Case Interview Basics
Case Library
AI Casebot
Tests & Guides
Mental Math Tool
Stress Questions
Drills
Video Tutorials
Brainteaser
Career
Employers
Career Events
Consulting Jobs
Consulting Blog
Schedule mock interviews on the Meeting Board, join the latest community discussions in our Consulting Q&A and find like-minded Interview Partners to connect and practice with!
Meeting Board
Consulting Q&A
Interview Partner
Premium Membership
Back to overview
Anonymous A
on Dec 24, 2021
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Market Sizing Approach

I am comfortable with market sizing questions such as “What is the annual US market size for smartphones” or “What is the market size for take away coffee in New York," where you can take a top-down approach to reach the answer. 

However, I am struggling more with questions that require a less top-down approach, and focus on a single place. Examples include:

  • Estimate revenues for a mid-size theatre on Broadway
  • Estimate revenues for a bike shop in London
  • Estimate revenues for the Natural History Museum in Los Angeles
  • Estimate revenues for iPhones sold at the Regents St (London) Apple store. 

How would you approach these questions? 

5
2.3k
14
Write an answer
Be the first to answer!
Nobody has responded to this question yet.
Top answer
Pedro
Coach
edited on Dec 26, 2021
Bain | EY-Parthenon | Former Principal | 1.5h session | 30% discount 1st session

In bottom up market sizing, you start by considering:

  1. Capacity of the store, considering the relevant constraint: seats, workers, pumping stations, coffee machines, …
  2. Capacity Utilization of the store (i.e. how much idle time/seats in a show, during lunch time, …)
  3. Number of rotations per period: (meals per day, shows per day, flights per day
  4. The relevant working period e.g. month, year, week, but considering that (e.g. no shows on Monday, closed during the weekend, etc.) - and convert it to yearly basis
  5. Price
  6. Optional: how many of those stores are out there (only if this is whole market analysis and not single store analysis)

Think about this: if you were going to setup a store yourself as an entrepreneur, how would you size it? How would you estimate its revenue potential? You would not consider the whole market size - instead you would consider your own capacity and then try to figure out how much of that capacity you would be able to use.

25
Contact coach
0 comments
Ian
Coach
on Dec 25, 2021
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Ok, so I want to take a step back here. All the other coaches are talking about taking a supply-constraint approach.

I absolutely agree…for the 4 questions you listed.

However, you're also asking about “non-top down” market sizings which won't always be supply/constraint-based.

General Tips

Remember that there's rarely a "best" answer with market sizing. What's important is that you break down the problem the way it makes sense to you. Importantly, break it down so that the assumptions you make are the ones you're most comfortable in.

For example, do you know all the major brands? Great go with that. Do you understand all the segments of that country's population (either age or wealth or job breakdown)? Go with that. Do you know the total market size of a similar industry? Then break it down that way.

It's very simple: Do the approach the is the easiest for you given the question.

Are they asking you to estimate something where you don't even know where to begin from the top (maybe you have 0 clue as to the market size of the industry, the GDP of that country, etc. etc.)? Then do bottom-up!

Alternatively, does it seem impossible to do a realistic from-the-ground-up estimation of something (perhaps it requires just far too many steps and assumptions)? Then do top-down!

Fundamentally, you need to take the approach that just makes the most sense in that circumstance. Quickly think about the key assumptions / numbers required and whether you 1) Know them or 2) Can reasonably estimate them. If you can, go ahead!

An Example

Here is a good Q&A great market sizing question asking to estimate # of electric charging stations in a city in 10 years:

https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-would-you-solve-this-market-sizing-question-from-roland-berger-7631

This one could be answered top-down (as I did) by estimating population of the city, # of drivers/ cars, etc. etc.

OR, it could be answered bottom-up by estimating # of stations you see per block (or # of gas/petrol tanks), % increase this might be over time (or # of EV stations that would be needed per gas tank given EV stations take 10 times as long), and # of blocks you'd estimate the city to have.

Here's another market sizing (with answers + explanations) to get you started:

https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/brain-teaser/intermediate/taxis-in-manhattan-market-sizing-229

24
Contact coach
0 comments
Udayan
Coach
on Dec 24, 2021
Top rated Case & PEI coach/Multiple real offers/McKinsey EM in New York /12 years recruiting experience

The question types you are answering require a supply constraint approach. What does that mean? Think of limiting factors here to get to an answer

Take the Broadway show as an example - what are the limitations here?

  • No of seats (capacity)
  • No of shows a day
  • Price per show

So if you say the theater has a capacity of 250, it does 10 shows a week and the avg price is $100 you can calculate a maximum revenue of $250,000 a week. Assuming that the actual tickets sold is 70% on average you can cut this number by 30% to get to an approximate answer of $175K a week or $9M a year.

This is one example of how to approach such problems.

Udayan

13
Contact coach
0 comments
Hagen
Coach
on Dec 24, 2021
#1 recommended coach | >95% success rate | 8+ years consulting, 8+ years coaching and 7+ years interviewing experience

Hi there,

This is indeed an interesting question which is probably relevant for quite a lot of users, so I am happy to provide my perspective on it:

  • Generally speaking, to my own experience and the ones of my coachees, the sole difference is that you might have more/ different limitating factors for the market sizing.
  • For instance, for the revenues of a mid-sized theatre on Broadway, I would advise you to approach the estimation from a supply side, i.e. you need to consider the specific capacity, frequency of shows aso. in your estimation. In contrast to this, to estimate revenues of the theatre industry as a whole, you might rather approach the estimation from a demand side (i.e. “How often and at what price do different household segments visit the theatre?”).

In case you want a more detailed discussion on how to best approach market sizing questions, please feel free to contact me directly.

I hope this helps,

Hagen

11
Contact coach
0 comments
Clara
Coach
on Dec 26, 2021
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Hello!

I would always recommend you to give it a shot and then post it here, this would help you the most. 

Given that market sizing cases were the topic of many questions in this Forum, I developped a market sizing case, that you can find for free in PrepL´s library

https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/candidate-led-usual-style/intermediate/market-sizing-new-startup-launch-baby-strollers-in-the-us-244

Let me know if you have any doubts with it, it contains a detailed explanation and methodology about how to solve this specific example, but you can extrapolate to many other market sizings!

Hope it helps!

Cheers, 

Clara

8
Contact coach
1 comment
Anonymous A
on Dec 27, 2021
Regarding the revenue from iPhones sold at the Apple store on Regent's Street in London, would this approach make sense?

Peak Hours:
- # of customers during peak hours: 80
- # that buy iPhones: 25% come to look for phones, 50% result in a purchase > 80 * .25 * .5 = 10 iPhones sold per hour during peak hours

Non-peak Hours:
- # of customers during non-peak hours: 40
- # that buy iPhones: 25% come to look for phones, 50% result in a purchase > 40 * 0.25 * 0.5 = 5 iPhones sold per hour during non-peak hours

Apple store open 10am - 10pm, 7 days per week (84 hours). "Peak" hours are weekends and 1 weeknight (12 + 12 + 5 = 29 peak hours); non-peak hours are the remainder = 55 hours.

- # of iPhones sold per week during peak hours: 10/hours * 29 hours/week = 290 phones
- # of iPhones sold per week during non-peak hours: 5/hour * 55 hours/week = 275 phones

Total iPhones sold per week: 275 + 290 = 565
Apple store open 51 weeks per year (1 week closed for holidays, etc)

iPhones sold per year: 565 weeks/year * 51 weeks = 28,815 (round to 28.8K)
Average price per iPhone = $800

Annual revenue for iPhones sold at the Regent's Street Apple store = $800 * 28.8K = $23M/year
Sign up for free to read all answers.
Sign up for free to read all answers.
Yes, I would like to be informed about new content, exciting jobs, relevant events, and selected employers.
By creating an account, I confirm that I agree to PrepLounge's Terms of Use. Please read our Privacy Policy.
Sign up with
You already have an account? Log in here.
Similar Questions
Consulting
I got a take-home case from a company. It is so generic. How should I approach this?
on Sep 28, 2024
Global
6
2.2k
Top answer by
Florian
Coach
1400 5-star reviews across platforms | 600+ offers | Highest-rated case book on Amazon | Uni lecturer in US, Asia, EU
58
6 Answers
2.2k Views
+3
Consulting
Guesstimate question - number of airplanes in the sky
on Aug 23, 2024
Global
4
1.6k
Top answer by
Hagen
Coach
#1 recommended coach | >95% success rate | 8+ years consulting, 8+ years coaching and 7+ years interviewing experience
56
4 Answers
1.6k Views
+1
Consulting
How to estimate the market size of the European bicycle market?
on Nov 30, 2024
Global
5
1.0k
Top answer by
Hagen
Coach
#1 recommended coach | >95% success rate | 8+ years consulting, 8+ years coaching and 7+ years interviewing experience
37
5 Answers
1.0k Views
+2
Top Answer by
Pedro
Coach
Bain | EY-Parthenon | Former Principal | 1.5h session | 30% discount 1st session
To coach profile
Related Article
Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
View article
Related Case
Company case by
RWE Consulting
RWE Consulting Case: Floating Wind in Japan
5.0
27.5k times solved
Intermediate
Interviewer-led
Open case
Similar Questions
Consulting
I got a take-home case from a company. It is so generic. How should I approach this?
on Sep 28, 2024
58
6
2.2k
Consulting
Guesstimate question - number of airplanes in the sky
on Aug 23, 2024
56
4
1.6k
Consulting
How to estimate the market size of the European bicycle market?
on Nov 30, 2024
37
5
1.0k
Everything for Your Career
  • Interview Coaching
  • Q&A
  • Interview Partner
  • Mental Math Tool
  • Interview Drills
  • Stress Questions
  • Blog
Everything for Your Career
  • Interview Coaching
  • Q&A
  • Interview Partner
  • Mental Math Tool
  • Interview Drills
  • Stress Questions
  • Blog
Popular in Consulting
  • Case Library
  • Meeting Board
  • Case Partner
  • Case Interview Basics
  • Case Interview
  • Consulting Q&A
Popular in Finance
  • Finance Q&A
  • Interview in Investment Banking
  • Investment Banking Salaries
Popular in Consulting
  • Case Library
  • Meeting Board
  • Case Partner
  • Case Interview Basics
  • Case Interview
  • Consulting Q&A
Popular in Finance
  • Finance Q&A
  • Interview in Investment Banking
  • Investment Banking Salaries
Consulting and Finance Employers
  • RWE Consulting
  • Whiteshield Advisory
  • All Employers »
About PrepLounge
  • For Companies
  • For Universities
  • For Coaches
  • About Us
  • Career
  • FAQ
© 2012 PrepLounge
Our servers are powered by electricity from renewable sources.
  • Cookies & Privacy
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Imprint
  • Sitemap
  • Contact
How likely are you to recommend us to a friend or fellow student?
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 = Not likely
10 = Very likely
Submit feedback
Thanks for your feedback! Your opinion helps us make PrepLounge even better.
Close Close and keep on prepping
Questions or Feedback?
Select category
  • Select category
  • General Feedback
  • Case Interview Preparation
  • Coaching
  • Technical Problems
  • Other
Your name
Your email address
Cancel