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Suggested structure to find the "root cause" of declining profit?

profitability
New answer on Aug 09, 2023
4 Answers
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Anonymous A asked on Aug 08, 2023

Hi, for a company that has declining profit, assuming that the main reason is a declining sales volume, what is the best way to further break down the drivers and find the root cause?

I'm trying to figure out a MECE structure that would include the most critical drivers. Would this structure work?

1. External: regulation / trend (technology) / customer preference shift / competitor (doing something new) / supply chain disruption

2. Internal: manufacturing / delivery / product / customer

Seems that this could be extended to a longer list… Any better idea to start “broad enough” and have different buckets that would cover all possible directions?

Overview of answers

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Carolin
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replied on Aug 08, 2023
1st meeting -50% | BCG | 15+ MBB offers secured for coachees | Empathic & enthusiastic coach

Hi! I've just reviewed your structure, and it's already a great start. You might consider adjusting it as follows:

External: Customer preference shifts / Existing competition (product changes & pricing changes) / New market entrants / Regulation / Economic conditions / Other trends

Internal: Product offerings / Quality / Reputation issues / Sales & distribution / Operations

Please note that this structure isn't exhaustive either, but it can guide you in considering various possibilities.

When examining revenues in a profitability case, remember that demand and price are often closely linked. A lower price typically leads to increased demand and vice versa.

Lastly, I don't think the structure needs to be MECE down to the last detail, as the profitability tree is MECE anyways. This structure should primarily assist you in identifying the issue behind declining volumes.

Hope this helps! Best, Carolin

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Ian
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Content Creator
replied on Aug 09, 2023
#1 BCG coach | MBB | Tier 2 | Digital, Tech, Platinion | 100% personal success rate (8/8) | 95% candidate success rate

Hi there,

RULE 1: Never ever ever make your entire framework about root cause.

If your spouse loses their job, is the only solution for your household to get their job back? Of course not! You could 1) Get their income back up in general 2) Increase your income 3) Cut expenses

Same applies for profitability.

RULE 2: Never ever have 1 generic structure for any case type that you squeeze into every single prompt.

GENERAL PROFITABILITY APPROACH
 

You need to understand the industry + company context from the prompt itself to figure this out...cases and case types cannot be memorized...you have to adjust every single time!

 

Example: LOOKING FIRST at Economy/Industry

 

In my Hot Wheels case, you're a Korean OEM with falling profits. You operate in the US and Japan. The FIRST thing you have to look at here is the general market AND how competitors are doing. Otherwise, you will never learn that US OEMs are doing well in the US while Korean OEMs are NOT doing well in the US. Then, you'll never solve the crux of the case which is that transport times+costs are prohibitively like (Just in Time delivery is the #1 product characteristic).

 

If you don't look at economy/industry first here, you will not solve the case in a time effective manner.

 

https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/candidate-led-usual-style/intermediate/hot-wheels-186

 

Example NOT looking at Economy/Industry

 

Take my "Chinese Airline During Covid" case example. We know that the airline is in trouble due to covid. We can make the deduction that this is caused by a reduction in demand. As such, we don't really need to look into rest of market/industry

 

So, we want to "repair" existing revenue streams as much as possible. So, first let's see what we can do. Then, whatever "gap" is remaining, we want to fill it with alternative revenue streams. Finally, whatever we can't make up for, we have to fix through cost cutting (ideally cutting unused capacity). See the logic here?

 

And it'll change every time based on the case itself...think critically!

 

https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/candidate-led-usual-style/intermediate/chinese-chess-airline-business-during-covid-19-191


 


 

GENERAL PROFIT DRIVERS

 

Volume Down: Competition reduced prices or improved their product (outcompeting you), competition just launched effective marketing, regulation has slowed you down, economic decline, environmental disaster, tarrifs, suppliers disrupting your production, your product no longer applies to the customer (i.e. decline has been happening for a while)...and so on and so forth...

 

Price Down: We're in a price war, costs have gone down so we're realising this, regulation has created a price cap, we ran a discount program

 

Variable Costs Up: Raw materials costing more, inefficient contracts, ageing workforce, deteriorating workforce, regulations, quality control

 

Fixed Costs Up: Recent large investments

================================================

REVENUE ISSUES/IMPROVEMENTS
 

Remember, you need to apply your revenue improvement ideas to the specific case at handYou cannot be generic.

 

That said, some major ways companies boost sales include:

  • SAAS (software as a service)
  • (Relatedly) Subscription revenue
    • Get people onot subscription plans (i.e. Netflix)
  • Behavior-changing "memberships" - i.e. Amazon Prime
    • When people enter Prime membership, they actually actively spend more than they did before
  • Bundling
    • I.e. sell a few things together
  • Radiation
    • Sell products similar to the current one
  • Low-price entry
    • Get someone in with a super cheap/good deal, then, now that you have them as a customer, sell additional, higher-margin products (insurance companies do this, for example)

==================================================

COST ISSUES
 


 

In general, for determining cost issues, you need to break down the problem into a tree/root-cause analysis and ask the highest level (but specific) questions first! In this way, you essentially move down the tree.

 

How do you identify where to look? Well, you need to look into whichever of the following 5 make the most sense based on where you are:

  1. What's the biggest? (i.e. largest piece of the pie...most likely to change the end result)
  2. What's changing the most? (I.e. could be driving the most and most likely to be fixable)
  3. What's the easiest to answer/eliminate? (i.e. quick win. Yes/No type of question that eliminates a lot of other things)
  4. What's the most different? (differences between companies, business units, products, geographies etc....difference = oopportunity)
  5. What's the most likely? (self-explanatory)

https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/structure-breakdown-for-costs-7963

 

https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/inventory-costs-how-to-segment-6861

 

https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/direct-and-indirect-instead-of-fixed-and-variable-6272

 

https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/when-should-i-break-down-costs-as-fixed-and-variable-as-opposed-to-over-the-value-chain-5990

 

Major Costs - Areas to Cut

 

FC

  • Rent
  • Labour (salaried employees)
  • Transport (if we own the trucks, etc.)
  • Capex
  • Utilities (for the office, warehouse, etc.)
  • Cbsolescence (wrong word...this is amortization/depreciation)
  • Stolen objects (but shocked you heard this in a case)

VC

  • Labour (hourly employees)
  • Transport (if we pay a company per load)
  • Fuel/truckers (if we own our own trucks etc. for transport)
  • Utilities (if you need more energy to make more widgets)
  • Raw Materials (why wasn't this included? Big one to miss)
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Cristian
Expert
Content Creator
replied on Aug 09, 2023
#1 rated MBB & McKinsey Coach

Hi there!

Most of the content areas that you're looking at are right. 

The main problem with your structure is that it's really traditional.

Internal / External is very typical. Same with ‘Market, Company, Competitors, Customer…’

Most consulting firms have made huge efforts in the past few years to adjust the recruitment process and give case that test the candidate's way of thinkig beyond frameworks. 

They really want to see how you think and how you create a structure on the spot. 

So reverting to frameworks usually doesn't go to well. 

They already shut down when you start with the typical buckets.

My recommendation would be that you try and come up with 2-3 alternative structurest, post them here and then we can provide feedback on each of them. 

Here's also a guide on structuring techniques that might come in handy:

Best,
Cristian

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Sophia
Expert
replied on Aug 09, 2023
Top-Ranked Coach on PrepLounge for 3 years| 6+ years of coaching

Hello,

This is a solid framework! 

The points you have put down could also be organized into an industry - competitors - customers - company type structure, with industry and competitors being parallel to your external bucket, customers sort of bridging the gap between the two, and company being your points in internal. For the internal/company bucket, focusing on all stages of the production process is a good idea (e.g., could incorporate the company's specific supply chain, and at the other end could also incorporate marketing/branding).

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Ian gave the best answer

Ian

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