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[Need help] Questions from Mckinsey case study: What method would you use to figure out how big the market for direct selling may be in 5 years’ time?

Q1: “What method would you use to figure out how big the market for direct selling may be in 5 years’ time? Say at the moment that 20 per cent of car owners buy their insurance over the phone directly from an insurance company. How could you figure out what percentage this could be in 5 years’ time? 

Q2: Given your growth estimates, what would be the value of the direct car insurance market in five years’ time if the current market for direct car insurance were worth £1.5 billion. 

Q3: What do you think an insurance company selling direct to car owners over the phone has to be good at?”

Hi All, I am preparing for Mckinsey case interview next Thursday. Need help from all you experience people to give me a guide on these kind of open questions. Thank you very much!

I have no clue and stuck. I am thinking to see market share/market size but unable to predict 5yrs later market size, maybe just guess in a structure way?

For example, my answer for Q1: 

I want to understand the 20% of current clients, how old are they, where do they live, and then to look into within future 5yrs, how many “same age & same city” people quantity will become, then to calculate the future % of clients.

For Q2:

Answer will be = 1.5 billion ponds * (new %/20%)

For Q3:

1. Service change: Instead of brokers, need great service center to follow up on future insurance compensation.

2. Package strategy: To provide clear and neat info. to clients thru phone and lock the deal within couple calls  in order to prevent phone call easily mess up due to too many or complicate info or way too many packages choices that are not able to easy explain verbally.

3. Good price set: For phone call clients, assume they do not have time/or they just do not like to face with brokers to negotiate for the price back and forth, and they prefer the direct price, so a competitive price shall be take into consideration.

 

More details of the case background:

Until recently, insurance brokers sold most car insurance to car owners. A car owner would ring or visit a broker who would suggest a range of different policies sold by different insurance companies. Insurance companies would pay a commission to a broker for each policy sold.

More recently, there has been a trend to car owners buying insurance directly from an insurance company over the phone – you may have seen, for example, the ‘Direct Line’ commercials with the ‘red phone on wheels’ on the television. We were asked to work with a leading car insurance company that had been very successful in selling policies through brokers, to help them figure out whether they should start selling their policies ‘direct’ to customers over the phone. If you were a car owner what might be the advantages of buying insurance direct from an insurance company over the phone, versus buying from an insurance broker?

What things would you need to consider to decide whether the insurance company should start selling car insurance over the phone?

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Top answer
Pedro
Coach
on Oct 03, 2021
Bain | EY-Parthenon | Former Principal | 1.5h session | 30% discount 1st session

Hi there,

Let me give you some hints on how to approach this. I think it is actually better that giving you a full solution. Particularly because I see many ways to approach this.

For Q1 what you have to consider is what drives direct insurance sales vs. other types of insurance sales. 

(I am assuming the whole insurance market size is something out of scope but it would be a thing to check with the interviewer. So I'll focus here only on what drives direct selling vs. other types of selling).

I suggest looking into demand and supply. I.e., who is purchasing (market segments, key purchasing criteria) and how do you expect those to evolve; and  who is offering this channel and whether you would this to grow (hint: you should compare economics vs. the insurance broker alternative: churn rate + customer acquisition costs - difference in price)

Q3: I would think about the sales process and how it generates revenues and costs. So, you need to be good at generating leads (marketing) and at turning them into sales (good commercial workforce + strong value proposition for the target segment i.e., aligned with the key purchase criteria).

Hope this makes it more clear.

Ian
Coach
on Oct 03, 2021
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi there,

There are some great answers from the other coaches below, so no need for me to add to them.

What I will say, is I'm a bit concerned that you appear to be completely stuck on the above. I would have expected that, if you have an interview in less than a week, you would be able to at least come close to answering these.

Are you able to delay your interview? I obviously haven't assessed you as a candidate, but there are some early signs you might not be ready (don't panic, but get an assessment and figure out if you do need to delay).

Udayan
Coach
on Oct 03, 2021
Top rated Case & PEI coach/Multiple real offers/McKinsey EM in New York /12 years recruiting experience

Few approaches

  • Linear growth - assume it grows at x% over the next five years - one assumption can simply be that it will continue to grow at the same rate it has for the last 2-3 years. You can justify this on it being a fast growing market with low adoption.
  • Exponential growth - growth can increase over time and essentially adoption will pick up as more people migrate to the direct selling model and this means you can grow at x% for first 2 years and y% for last 3 yrs etc
  • Independent growth rates - pick a  new growth rate every year 

You will have to use reasonable assumptions and justify it (see my first bullet on how to justify it) and check with the interviewer if they agree and then you can calculate the answer.

 

Best,

Udayan

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