Market size of Umbrellas in Italy. How to better approach it?

Market sizing
New answer on Nov 20, 2019
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Anonymous A asked on Nov 20, 2019

From an household perspective or dividing populatio by age?

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Antonello
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replied on Nov 20, 2019
McKinsey | MBA professor for consulting interviews

Hi,
in terms of volume I would approach it with a household perspective:
- umbrellas per household
- life of umbrellas
- umbrellas purchased because forgotten at home
- umbrellas purchased in Italy by foreigners (tourists, businessmen)

If the objective is the total market in € you should also differentiate at least 2 categories of umbrellas (cheap and premium)

Best,
Antonello

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Udayan
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replied on Nov 20, 2019
Top rated McKinsey Case & PEI coach/Multiple real offers/McKinsey EM in New York /6 years McKinsey recruiting experience

Hi,

One approach is highlighted below :

Few things to remember when sizing this market

  1. It is important to divide umbrella purchases into planned vs impulse buys given the nature of the market
  2. For planned purchases - you can take a household approach using standard assumptions and anything from less than to a little over 1 umbrella per member is reasonable
    1. One thing to note here is there are also non-household purchases (hotels, offices etc.). So scale up your household assumption by a reasonable number like10- 25% to account for these (depending on your assumptions)
    2. Replacement rate also matters but I think would be extremely small for non impulse umbrellas (I cant remember the last time I checked an umbrella without going in the rain!)
  3. For impulse buys I think the following are the key markets
    1. Domestic buyers caught in the rain
      1. Look at number of rainy days in a year in Italy
      2. Make assumption on number of people there that would need to buy umbrellas because they are outside in the rain and got caught or umbrella didn't work (should be a very small % for each day)
      3. Add up the numbers for all the days
    2. Tourists
      1. Estimate total tourists (maybe by season so you can focus on rainy season if relevant)
      2. Estimate % that would need umbrellas on each rainy day(fair to say a high number of tourists like 50% or so don’t have space to or don’t remember to bring umbrellas on their trips). This number should be quite a bit higher than domestic number because tourists are looking to do things outside all the time.
      3. Add the numbers up
  4. Also remember competition from things like ponchos - which should reduce all your numbers (make an assumption on poncho vs umbrella sales depending on factors like price and intensity of rainfall)
  5. Accounting for all of the above get rough market size for annual umbrella sales in Italy
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Antonello

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