Hi,

One approach is highlighted below :

Few things to remember when sizing this market

1. It is important to divide umbrella purchases into planned vs impulse buys given the nature of the market
2. For planned purchases - you can take a household approach using standard assumptions and anything from less than to a little over 1 umbrella per member is reasonable
   1. One thing to note here is there are also non-household purchases (hotels, offices etc.). So scale up your household assumption by a reasonable number like10- 25% to account for these (depending on your assumptions)
   2. Replacement rate also matters but I think would be extremely small for non impulse umbrellas (I cant remember the last time I checked an umbrella without going in the rain!)
3. For impulse buys I think the following are the key markets
   1. Domestic buyers caught in the rain
      1. Look at number of rainy days in a year in Italy
      2. Make assumption on number of people there that would need to buy umbrellas because they are outside in the rain and got caught or umbrella didn't work (should be a very small % for each day)
      3. Add up the numbers for all the days
   2. Tourists
      1. Estimate total tourists (maybe by season so you can focus on rainy season if relevant)
      2. Estimate % that would need umbrellas on each rainy day(fair to say a high number of tourists like 50% or so don’t have space to or don’t remember to bring umbrellas on their trips). This number should be quite a bit higher than domestic number because tourists are looking to do things outside all the time.
      3. Add the numbers up
4. Also remember competition from things like ponchos - which should reduce all your numbers (make an assumption on poncho vs umbrella sales depending on factors like price and intensity of rainfall)
5. Accounting for all of the above get rough market size for annual umbrella sales in Italy