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Philip

on Jan 12, 2018

Global

How would you size the market for caravans in the U.S.?

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Coach

on Jan 15, 2018

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Hey Philip,

There are for sure several ways of estimating that number, but a quick top down approach can be resumed in 3 steps
1. Estimate the total population of the US: ~300M (I guess it's already a bit higher by now, but this number makes calculations easier and works out as a proxy)

2. Divide by the average size of an household (which should be somewhere between 3 and 4, let's assume 4): ~75M

3. Assume a percentage of households that like/do camping at all: 50% >> ~~37.5M (I don't have any particular insight in the US, so this number might be a bit off; if you're from the US just relate to your day-to-day surrounding and experience)

4. Assume a percentage for ratio of people that actually hold a caravan: 20% >> ~7.5M (same disclaimer as before)

What really matter is you're able to come up with the process/way to get a ballpark figure, not that the numbers are exactly the right ones.

Best

Bruno

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2 comments

Philip

on Jan 18, 2018

Hi Bruno, Thank you very much for your input. Your view supports my assumptions. Best regards

Mathias

on Mar 02, 2018

Thanks Bruno. I would tackle the issue slightly differently: 1) While leisure activities certainly might contribute to the overall # of caravans, many people in the US live in a trailerpark, therefore increasing the overall #. 2) We are asked for the market size, therefore, we'd definitely need to put a price tag on an average caravan. 3) We also have to take into account time (if we are looking for the annual sales), thus we'd potentially need to estimate the lifecycle of a caravan.