My approach is to divide the market into two segments - usage at home or industrial usage * recycling rate. But I find it really hard to estimate the industrial usage. Any suggestion?
(edited)
What do you mean by "take a more top down approach"?
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How much plastic will the UK recycle next year ?
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I don't think there's a lot of industrial usage that doesn't end in the consumer shelves. So I would probably think about it from the domestic perspective only (and would add the plastic that a “regular” person would use on their job as well).
However, this only gives you how much plastic is produced every year. This does not answer how much is recycled. This is not an approach.
So let's take a step back and consider the formula first. Recycled Plastic = Consumed plastic * % sent for recycling * % that is recyclable * % recycled in the UK
For consumed plastic you should breakdown into major sources of plastic (packaging; disposables; plastic made products - e.g. toys, electronics).
Now this is an approach ;)
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Well, that's because you're trying to segment something you don't know anything about…which defeats the purpose of market sizing :P
Market sizing is all about breaking down problems so that you move from guessing and towards estimating.
Rather, try to think about what % industrial usage is to home usage. Or, try to tie all usage back to household usage. Or, try to take a more top-down approach.
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It is very difficult to think of what all items industries will recycle - so its definitely going to be a tough thing to do.
If I think about it - most plastic goods are consumer goods. Industries may not have as much plastic recycling anyways. Most industrial equipment and widgets are generally metal-based.
So maybe you can go about this from a consumer journey perspective. Think of all the different plastic-involved activities a typical person does in a day and see if you can estimate the items and their amount.
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