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How likely do you think is it that McK would boot out fellows?

I've recently, when hiring already slowed down significantly and people were already talking about hiring freezes, received an offer from McKinsey. 

With all these talks of people on the beach and the backoffice cut now I am getting quite anxious tbh. 

Do you think it is likely that McK will also boot out new fellows? That is, even without them doing something “crazy” or underperforming? 

Some more senior people told me that I should relax, stating that the reputational hit would be too damaging and they rather carry on a bloated junior pool but stop hiring. 

What do you think about that? 

For me it is particularly annoying since I opted (after thinking for a long time) for McKinsey instead of a financial RX house that has tons of work at the moment. 

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Top answer
Hagen
Coach
on Feb 27, 2023
#1 recommended coach | >95% success rate | 8+ years consulting, 8+ years coaching and 7+ years interviewing experience

Hi there,

First of all, I am sorry to hear about your concerns!

I think this is an interesting question that may be relevant for many people. I would be happy to share my thoughts on it:

  • Generally speaking, McKinsey and all other strategy consulting companies will prioritize measures that will not impact their reputation too hard, such as bonus cuts, postponing start dates of new joiners, stricter application of the "up or out" principle, etc. As such, I would deem the chance of McKinsey "randomly" firing new joiners to be very low.
  • Still, it is true that the current tight economic situation has led to a recruiting slowdown and sometimes a freeze in strategy consulting, especially with McKinsey, which has recently canceled most of its recruiting activities (sometimes with the motivation to reapply in September 2023).
  • Lastly, I would highly advise you not to worry anymore about your career decision, especially since strategy consulting is normally a rather recession-resistant industry to work in.

If you would like a more detailed discussion on how to address your specific situation, please don't hesitate to contact me directly.

Best,

Hagen

Andi
Coach
on Feb 26, 2023
BCG 1st & Final Round interviewer | Personalized prep with >95% success rate | 7yrs coaching | Experienced Hires

Hi there,

I'd not worry too much and concur with the senior people you referred to.

Based on how the company (alongside other leading consulting firms) has handled structural demand issues and general economic downturns in the past, while there are no guarantees in life, it's rather unlikely that such drastic measures are taken - even during the GFC in 2008, the firm did not opt for structural retrenchment. Let me elaborate a bit..

Before firms like McKinsey retrenches consulting staff, they have a wide range of other levers they tend to prioritize, such as..

  • Bonus cuts
  • Promotion slow-downs (→ higher natural attrition)
  • Postpone start dates of new joiners
  • Stricter enforcement of the “up-or-out” principle (→ applies only to lower end performers)
  • Hiring slow-downs (already the case) / full freezes (quite rare, but possible in the interim)
  • Etc

Besides that and the image topic that you righly mentioned, the hith degree of natural attrition that comes on top of the “up our out” at a place like McK even requires the firm to keep hiring in order to back-fill sufficiently. Hence, even hiring freezes, when applied, by design are very temporary in nature. Consulting teams require a certain seniority pyramid to be effective - if the broad base of junior roles were reduced too much, the firm simply can't staff their projects adequately at some point. 

In summary, would not worry too much - as long as you perform relatively well, you'll be fine. Hope that explains and wish you all the best.

Regards, Andi

Pedro
Coach
on Feb 26, 2023
Bain | EY-Parthenon | Former Principal | 1.5h session | 30% discount 1st session

Chance of cancelling offers? Zero.

Chance of letting people go for non-performance issues? Honestly, not that high (also because recession is not hitting that hard, if you can say “recession” at all). Average tenure in consulting is 2-2.5 years. That includes both people who are “counseled out” of the firm and people who just decide consulting is not the right thing for them anymore. So if a consulting firm needs to adjust its pyramid structure, it usually just needs to wait for enough people to leave and in the meantime reduce the number of people they are already hiring… 

Will the bar for performance be higher? Will more people be “counseled out"? Most likely yes. But not for the recent hires / unexperienced candidates. Because they already adjusted the pyramid at the entry-level by reducing the hiring intake. Where they will have excess people will be in the mid-level ranks (and these are more expensive), and they will want to free up space so that talented people at lower ranks still have the chance to have a fast-pace career progression.

Furthermore, they cannot send too many entry-level consultants away, otherwise when the economy rebounds they won't have the critical mid-level consultants they need to deliver projects.

Anonymous A
on Feb 27, 2023
Thank you very much. This is exactly what I've heard from another senior (adjusting the pyramid).

I think for now I will just stop worrying and get my mind off doing something else ... i.e. trying to be as healthy as possible and enjyoing as much leisure time I have before I start at the firm.
Florian
Coach
on Feb 27, 2023
1400 5-star reviews across platforms | 600+ offers | Highest-rated case book on Amazon | Uni lecturer in US, Asia, EU

Hi there,

Not that likely but definitely possible (and happened in the past).

Every coach here tends to be way too bullish on consulting hiring (for obvious reasons) and it was blatantly misleading over the last couple of months. 

Over the last half year, applicants asked about a hiring slowdown which was downplayed by every coach - yet it happened. Feel free to look for older threads on this (keywords something around hiring freeze, hiring slowdown).

Now, new hires are worried about being let go. The same has actually happened in 2008/09 after new hires were on the beach for 6 months and never worked on an actual engagement before being asked to leave.

In short, it can happen as a significant portion of young consultants is on the beach at the moment. There is a non-zero possibility for this to happen again and it makes sense to have alternatives figured out (as you should always have).

Let's hope it does not get that far!

Cheers,

Florian

Anonymous A
on Feb 27, 2023
I think the comparison pales a bit. 2008 was 15 years ago and a completely different time in terms of governance, social media etc. - would much rather look at Covid. Did new joiners got kicked out there?
Florian
Coach
on Feb 27, 2023
1400 5-star reviews across platforms | 600+ offers | Highest-rated case book on Amazon | Uni lecturer in US, Asia, EU
Hello Anonymous,
McKinsey (and other firms) saw the Pandemic as boom years. In fact, 2021 was the year that the firm hired more people than ever before. There is an interview out there with their global recruiting director at that time. Is it as bad as the financial crisis in 2008/09 now? No, and I never said otherwise if you read carefully. Is the forecast of most banks and economists negative for 2023? Yes. Has McKinsey already announced to let go 2,000 people this year? Yes. Hence, yes it is a possibility. Nothing more, nothing less...
Cheers,
Florian
Dennis
Coach
on Feb 26, 2023
Roland Berger|Project Manager and Recruiter|7+ years of consulting experience in USA and Europe

Hi,

If McK was forced to do that to you, then no consulting firm (or any other firm with a high reputation) would be a safe choice anymore. 

It is not impossible that this happens, but it is unlikely and it would be a last resort type of situation. Before they boot new joiners, they might ask them to start later if the project pipeline wasn't looking too good during your initial start date. 

If a consulting company has to do layoffs, they would do it in a manner to maintain the pyramid structure - that means senior level positions also have to be removed.

That said, if you like the offer and the company, then you should go with it. Even if you end up on the beach at first, it gives you time to familiarize yourself with the new surrounding, the tools, etc. which is not a bad thing either.

Good luck

on Feb 27, 2023
#1 Coach for Sessions (4.500+) | 1.500+ 5-Star Reviews | Proven Success: ➡ interviewoffers.com | Ex BCG | 10Y+ Coaching

Hi there,

Congratulations on the McKinsey offer! In terms of your questions:

Q: Do you think it is likely that McK will also boot out new fellows? That is, even without them doing something “crazy” or underperforming? 

If you have signed an offer, it is extremely unlikely that they will cancel it for the following reasons:

  • Rescinding a signed offer would create a major reputational issue. It could also have legal consequences for the firm, depending on the country.
  • If they have staffing issues, it makes more sense to ask to join later rather than canceling the offer as eventually they will need consultants. If that happens, it would be up to you to accept the later starting date or withdraw.
  • In the extreme case of structural issues (ie the company doesn’t expect to grow for a while) and inability to postpone the starting date (which is very unlikely for a top consulting firm), they would most likely hire and layoff people after the probation period, to avoid the reputation and possible legal issue.

At the same time, they might decrease the number of confirmations after the probation period (point #3 above).

Best,

Francesco

Udayan
Coach
on Feb 27, 2023
Top rated Case & PEI coach/Multiple real offers/McKinsey EM in New York /12 years recruiting experience

It’s unlikely that they would boot fellows out randomly but it is likely that they will counsel our more consultants and have less tolerance for poor performers than in the past given the slowing demand for consulting services. 

Ian
Coach
on Feb 28, 2023
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi there,

Please stop worrying! 

It's very very unlikely this happens. As long as you perform well and show that you are developing into a strong consultant, you should be just fine.

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