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Anonymous A
on Sep 27, 2022
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Size of the second hand car market in the US

Dear all,

I kindly would like to learn your approach on how to solve “what is the size of the second hand car market in the US?” and the drivers for it.

Thank you.

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Top answer
Raj
Coach
on Oct 17, 2023
FREE 15MIN CONSULTATION | #1 Strategy& / OW coach | >70 5* reviews |90% offers ⇨ prep-success.super.site | MENA, DE, UK

Define the market scope: Clarify whether you are referring to the entire second-hand car market or a specific segment, such as passenger cars or commercial vehicles.

Identify key variables:

  • Total population: Determine the population of the US.
  • Car ownership rate: Estimate the percentage of the population that owns a car.
  • Car replacement cycle: Determine the average frequency at which individuals replace their cars.
  • Second-hand car market share: Research and estimate the percentage of car sales that are second-hand.

Calculate the size of the second-hand car market:

  • Multiply the total population by the car ownership rate to estimate the number of car owners.
  • Multiply the number of car owners by the replacement cycle to estimate the number of cars being replaced.
  • Multiply the number of cars being replaced by the second-hand car market share to estimate the size of the second-hand car market.

Consider drivers and influencing factors:

  • Economic conditions: Assess the impact of economic factors, such as GDP growth, unemployment rates, and consumer confidence, on the demand for second-hand cars.
  • New car market: Analyze the trends in the new car market, as it can influence the availability and pricing of second-hand cars.
  • Technological advancements: Consider the impact of emerging technologies, such as electric vehicles, on the second-hand car market.

Remember, market sizing is an estimation based on available data and assumptions. It's important to validate your estimates with industry reports, market research, and expert opinions to ensure reasonableness. Good luck with your analysis!

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Ian
Coach
on Sep 28, 2022
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi there,

You'll learn a lot more from this by trying it out yourself first! Why don't you post your approach here and we can provide commentary?

How to approach market sizing

It's very simple: Do the approach the is the easiest for you given the question.

Are they asking you to estimate something where you don't even know where to begin from the top (maybe you have 0 clue as to the market size of the industry, the GDP of that country, etc. etc.)? Then do bottom-up!

Alternatively, does it seem impossible to do a realistic from-the-ground-up estimation of something (perhaps it requires just far too many steps and assumptions)? Then do top-down!

Fundamentally, you need to take the approach that just makes the most sense in that circumstance. Quickly think about the key assumptions / numbers required and whether you 1) Know them or 2) Can reasonably estimate them. If you can, go ahead!

An Example

He's a Q&A for a great market sizing question here asking to estimate # of electric charging stations in a city in 10 years:

https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-would-you-solve-this-market-sizing-question-from-roland-berger-7631

This one could be answered top-down (as I did) by estimating population of the city, # of drivers/ cars, etc. etc.

OR, it could be answered bottom-up by estimating # of stations you see per block (or # of gas/petrol tanks), % increase this might be over time (or # of EV stations that would be needed per gas tank given EV stations take 10 times as long), and # of blocks you'd estimate the city to have.

Take a look here for additional practice! https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/brain-teaser/intermediate/taxis-in-manhattan-market-sizing-229

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Clara
Coach
on Sep 30, 2022
McKinsey | Awarded professor at Master in Management @ IE | MBA at MIT |+180 students coached | Integrated FIT Guide aut

Hello!

I would always recommend you to give it a shot and then post it here, this would help you the most. 

Given that market sizing cases were the topic of many questions in this Forum, I developped a market sizing case, that you can find for free in PrepL´s library

https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/candidate-led-usual-style/intermediate/market-sizing-new-startup-launch-baby-strollers-in-the-us-244

Furthermore, you can find a detailed market sizing (a complex one integrated into a case) in my latest case: 

Swiss manufacturer market assessment, profitability and scenarios: https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/candidate-led-usual-style/advanced/swiss-coffins-the-death-business-245

Let me know if you have any doubts with it, it contains a detailed explanation and methodology about how to solve this specific example, but you can extrapolate to many other market sizings!

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Pedro
Coach
edited on Sep 27, 2022
Bain | EY-Parthenon | Former Principal | 1.5h session | 30% discount 1st session

There are many alternative ways to solve this. And you improve much more by trying by yourself than by just reading answers.  

I suggest you give it a try and then we can comment and suggest improvement opportunities.

However, I don't want to leave you without even giving a hint. I suggest you consider:

  • the number of cars in the US
  • how long does a car last (you can think about how many miles divided by miles per year… or just assume reasonable number)
  • how frequently one changes cars
  • divide between those purchased new vs. second hand
  • the different value of cars when purchased new
  • the depreciation of the cars as the years pass by
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Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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