Hi,
I tried both top-down and bottom-up approaches, please let me know if you have any comments or suggestions? Thanks.
Top-down
- Population of New York City 8M
- On average one person goes to park once a month
- There are 4 attractions for entertainment in New York that has same attractiveness as central park (e.g. museums, shows, others)
- Local visitors represent 50% of the total visitors, the other 50% are tourists
8M x 1/30 x 1/4 x 2 =~ 133,000/day
(~ 48.7M per year, close to recorded data.)
Bottom-up
I can't seem to find a way to estimate from the bottom-up.
=======Update================
I have taken the advice and re-done the bottom-up approach from what I see and know:
Daily visitors = Visitors/hour x opening hours
Visitors/hour = capacity x occupancy rate x (1 hour/ average time spent)
Capacity = size of central park x areas available for people %(e.g. exl lakes, trees - ⅓) / average space between people
Size of central park (from what I can see) = from 59th Street to 110th Street x between 5th Avenue and Central Park West = 3.5km2
Average space between people = I see one person in an area of 50m2 (like my flat size)
Occupancy rate = can differ from seasons, weathers, weekdays/weekends, but on average 50%
Opening hours = 18 (6am - 10pm)
Daily visitors = (3.5km2 x ⅓ )/50m2 x 50% X (1hour/30min) X 18 hours = 23,333 x 50% x 2 x 18 = 420,000
(this is significantly larger than real data, but I like the approach. appreciate any further comments. Thanks a lot!)
