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Anonymous A
on Oct 16, 2023
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Market sizing: How many people visit the emergency department at one hospital per year?

Hi,

I would like to get some help with this market sizing question:

How many people visit the emergency department at one hospital per year?

My approach which is not complete is:

- Number of doctors at the emergency department
      Number of sick people that needs help
           Population
           % that needs emergency help
            % that goes to the emergency department 
      Number of visits / patient
- Number of visit per doctor 
     Number of visits / day
         Number of worked hours 
         Number of visit / hour
     Number of working days 

I think it is hard to know % that needs emergency help per day 

What would your approach be?

Thank you in advance!
    

 

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Raj
Coach
on Oct 17, 2023
FREE 15MIN CONSULTATION | #1 Strategy& / OW coach | >70 5* reviews |90% offers ⇨ prep-success.super.site | MENA, DE, UK

here's an approach you can take to estimate the number of people who visit the emergency department at one hospital per year:

Define the key variables:

  • Population: Determine the population served by the hospital.
  • Average visit frequency: Estimate how often individuals visit the emergency department on average per year.

Calculate the total number of visits:

  • Multiply the population by the average visit frequency to get an estimate of the total number of visits per year.

Adjust for factors:

  • Consider any factors that may impact the visit frequency, such as the age distribution of the population or the prevalence of certain medical conditions.

Validate and refine your estimate:

  • Compare your estimate with any available data or industry benchmarks to validate its reasonableness.
  • If necessary, refine your estimate based on additional information or insights.

Regarding the percentage of people who need emergency help per day, it can be challenging to determine this directly. However, you can make reasonable assumptions based on industry knowledge or available data. For example, you can consider the average percentage of the population that seeks emergency care annually or refer to public health statistics.

Remember, the key is to break down the problem into manageable components and make reasonable assumptions based on the information available. Good luck with your market sizing analysis!

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Frederic
Coach
on Oct 17, 2023
ex A. Partner McKinsey |Senior Interviewer| Real Feedback & Free Homework between sessions|Harvard Coach|10+ Experience

Operating Hours: Estimate the average number of hours the hospital's emergency department is open each day, considering that capacity may vary throughout the day. For instance, during daytime, there might be more staff, and thus, higher capacity, while during the night, capacity could be lower.

Capacity per Hour: Consider different capacities for various time blocks during the day. This could be, for example, 10 patients per hour during the daytime when the department is fully staffed, and 4 patients per hour during the night when staff levels are reduced.

Utilization: Estimate how much of the department's capacity is typically utilized. For instance, during peak hours, the department might be operating at nearly full capacity, but during off-peak hours, utilization could be lower.

Days Open: Assume the department is open every day, which is common in most hospitals, resulting in 365 days a year.

Estimate: Calculate the estimated annual throughput by multiplying the number of operating hours per day by the capacity per hour for the respective time block, adjusting for utilization, and then multiply by the number of days open per year.

For example, you might assume:

  • Daytime (8 AM to 8 PM): 10 patients per hour, 80% utilization
  • Nighttime (8 PM to 8 AM): 4 patients per hour, 60% utilization

Annual throughput = (12 hours x 10 patients x 80%) + (12 hours x 4 patients x 60%) x 365 days = Estimated annual patient visits to the emergency department.

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Ian
Coach
on Oct 17, 2023
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi there,

Population is not the right approach. You have no idea what the right breakdown is. You are guessing. Market sizing is about estimating not guessing.

Rather, you should look at capacity/throughput of the hospital. You should take an approach similar to this one:

https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/candidate-led-usual-style/intermediate/market-sizing-with-solution-coffee-shop-revenue-318

Here are 2 other cases where I physically walk you through the answer in video format:

https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/candidate-led-usual-style/beginner/market-sizing-with-solution-number-of-taxis-317

https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/candidate-led-usual-style/advanced/market-sizing-with-solution-number-of-internet-users-319

 

 

How to approach market sizing

It's very simple: Do the approach the is the easiest for you given the question.

Are they asking you to estimate something where you don't even know where to begin from the top (maybe you have 0 clue as to the market size of the industry, the GDP of that country, etc. etc.)? Then do bottom-up!

Alternatively, does it seem impossible to do a realistic from-the-ground-up estimation of something (perhaps it requires just far too many steps and assumptions)? Then do top-down!

Fundamentally, you need to take the approach that just makes the most sense in that circumstance. Quickly think about the key assumptions / numbers required and whether you 1) Know them or 2) Can reasonably estimate them. If you can, go ahead!

An Example

He's a Q&A for a great market sizing question here asking to estimate # of electric charging stations in a city in 10 years:

https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-would-you-solve-this-market-sizing-question-from-roland-berger-7631

This one could be answered top-down (as I did) by estimating population of the city, # of drivers/ cars, etc. etc.

OR, it could be answered bottom-up by estimating # of stations you see per block (or # of gas/petrol tanks), % increase this might be over time (or # of EV stations that would be needed per gas tank given EV stations take 10 times as long), and # of blocks you'd estimate the city to have.

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Cristian
Coach
on Oct 17, 2023
#1 rated McKinsey Coach

Hi there!

Lots of useful responses below already. 

Just wanted to add that even after you agree on the approach and final number with the interviewer, you are still expected to ‘comment’ / ‘interpret’ the number like in a calculation exercise during a case. 

Specifically for market sizing questions, this commentary can be about some of the assumptions that you took and which are sensitive (i.e., if proven wrong the final number will be very different) OR some of the next steps that you would take following the market sizing exercise. 

Best,
Cristian

———————————————

Practicing for interviews? Check out my latest case based on a first-round MBB interview >>> SoyTechnologies  

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