Acquiring a vineyard in the Piedmont region (Italy)

Please provide Appendix 1 to the candidate

Beginner-Level Comments:

• The top 5 wine producers in Piedmont hold approximately 15% of the market share in terms of sales

Advanced-Level Comments:

• The wine industry in this region is notably fragmented, which enhances its appeal because the target company won't need to compete against industry giants
• It appears that no player, when compared to others, possesses significant market power, extensive marketing budgets, or a robust distribution network
• Due to this fragmentation, there may be pricing pressures, especially in certain sub-segments of the business, particularly for competitively priced wines. This could potentially impact profit margins negatively. Nevertheless, economies of scale might emerge as a critical success factor. Therefore, it's reasonable to anticipate industry consolidation, particularly in the affordable wine sub-segment, over the long term
• In this context, our PE firm is presented with a favorable investment environment. The industry features low barriers to entry in terms of competition, and there's an opportunity to consolidate selected vineyards. This consolidation could leverage economies of scale, optimize processes, and generate synergies in terms of revenue and cost, enhancing the investment's potential.

Note: Candidates aren't expected to cover all advanced comments, but including some demonstrates the ability to delve deeper, connect concepts, provide insights, and analyze the industry effectively, even when not intimately familiar with the subject matter.

Please provide Appendix 2 to the candidate.

Please provide this information only upon request:

• We anticipate a 20% annual growth rate in the wine business for the 2023-2024 period
• The conservative scenario indicates that the average price is projected to decline to €5 per liter by 2024

To determine the market size of wine in Piedmont, we need 2 main components: (1) annual production and (2) the average price

1. Projection of the annual production

• From historical data, we know that in 2022 the Piedmont region produced 2.3 M hectoliters of wine
• Based on the additional information provided in the case, we assume that the 2022 annual production will grow at 20% per year
• Hence, in 2023 the expected volume of wine produced is 2.8 M hectoliters
• Using the same approach, we can estimate the annual production of wine in 2024 that is expected to be almost 3.3 M hectoliters

2. Average price per liter

• That's easy as it's plug-and-play information provided by the interviewer: €5 per liter

With these two pieces of information in mind, we can obtain the projected market size in 2024 (being careful about the units of measurement!). Particularly, in 2024 we expect to have a 1.7 €B wine market.

To address this question effectively, a valuable approach or framework involves examining both the supply and demand aspects of the equation to identify qualitative considerations. Ultimately, the price is determined by the market, which represents the equilibrium between these two driving forces: supply and demand.

Consequently, several factors can contribute to a drop in the price of wine:

1. Rapid Growth of Supply/Production

• The emergence of new wine producers introducing fresh brands can exert competitive pressure on existing market players
• An expansion in the acreage dedicated to wine production across the Piedmont region may result in an oversupply relative to market demand, leading to price reductions
• Favorable weather conditions might boost the yield per acre, increasing the overall production volume
• The adoption of new technologies and equipment, such as fertilizers and irrigation systems, can enhance yield per acre
• The development or cultivation of higher-yield grape varieties may contribute to increased production.

2. Decline in Demand for Wine Produced in Piedmont

• Other regions or countries may gain popularity over Piedmont, capturing the interest of a broader audience
• Consumer preferences may shift towards alternative alcoholic beverages
• Regulatory changes may impose strict limitations on price increases

These factors collectively illustrate how market dynamics can influence wine prices, showcasing the interplay between supply and demand in shaping pricing trends.

Note: This is just one of many potential ways to tackle the question. Even a structured list of potential considerations is acceptable. On average, great candidates provide 4-6 ideas

For this question, the framework employed in the previous question aligns well and can be applied effectively here as well. Specifically, considering both demand and supply factors is crucial when exploring elements that could potentially drive an increase in wine prices in the future.

1. Decrease in Supply/Production

• Bankruptcy of Selected Wine Producers: The financial difficulties or insolvency of specific wine producers may lead to reduced production, thereby limiting supply and potentially raising prices
• Impact of Extreme Weather Conditions: Adverse weather conditions that threaten a portion of the grape yield can diminish overall production, resulting in a shortage and potential price increases
• Regulatory Restrictions on Fertilizers: If regulatory changes impose limitations on the use of specific fertilizers that enhance yield per acre, this could constrain production and contribute to price growth.

2. Increase in Demand

• Recognition of Piedmont Region's Excellence: If the Piedmont region gains international acclaim as one of the world's premier wine production areas, it may create opportunities for price appreciation
• Shifting Consumer Preferences to Premium Grapes: A shift in consumer preferences towards premium grape varieties can drive up prices, especially if these grapes are in high demand
• Macro Trend of Dining Out: A broader trend of consumers dining out, whether for lunch or dinner, can stimulate global wine consumption and, consequently, prices
• Growing International Demand and Exports: An increase in international demand, particularly through expanded exports, can elevate prices as wines from the Piedmont region gain popularity on the global stage.

Note: This is just one of many potential ways to tackle the question. Even a structured list of potential considerations is acceptable. On average, great candidates provide 4-6 ideas