A large natural gas field is unexpectedly discovered on the Mediterranean island of Corsica. The gas can be accessed and produced relatively easily and is of good quality. Europe, and especially Germany as the largest gas consumer in the EU, is looking for alternative gas suppliers to reduce its one-sided dependence on Russia. An initial market study has shown that stable demand in Western Europe would allow for around 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas per year from the new gas field to be sold on the European market for the next 25 years.
To achieve this, however, the gas must be transported to the important Western European gas hub Baumgarten in Austria. Several large oil and gas companies sense a business opportunity here and are now asking themselves whether it is economically feasible to build a corresponding gas pipeline from Corsica to Austria.
One of these companies has approached you as a consultant to provide your assessment.
Case Prompt:
Evaluation of Commercial Feasibility
Would the gas pipeline project be economically feasible? In other words, would the revenues from natural gas sales in Europe exceed the total project costs?
Candidates should realize that a quantitative profitability analysis is required in order to answer the question. Since the prompt does not provide many quantitative parameters, candidates will have to think through the appropriate profitability structure with relevant revenue and cost components.
The following information can be shared if the candidate requires additional context:
- The island of Corsica belongs to France
- The pipeline will have to go through Italy in order to reach Austria
- Since Corsica is an island, the pipeline will need an offshore and an onshore segment
Candidates should be encouraged to make estimates for the quantitative parameters where possible. If the candidates get stuck or their assumptions deviate by orders of magnitude, the interviewer should provide guidance for the parameter in question (representative numerical values are listed in the Solution section)
Good candidates will:
- develop their approach based on a formula with relevant (variable) parameters first to discuss the general drivers with the interviewer before jumping into numbers
- apply a differentiated view on the total project cost breakdown
- think through the practical implications for such a pipeline project (e.g. the offshore segment likely has different (cost) requirements than the onshore segment, gas does not just flow through the pipeline on its own so that compressors are also needed for the operation)
- consider that there will be significant costs for the actual natural gas production and not just the pipeline CAPEX and OPEX
- be comfortable making initial estimates instead of asking the interviewer for every piece of information right away
- come up with reasonable assumptions showcasing common sense
Total Revenue = 25 years * 10 bcm/year * sales price gas (ca. 18 ct/m3; candidates can ask this input from interviewer) = ca. EUR 45 billion
Total Cost of pipeline project over 25 years:
CAPEX Pipeline
- Inputs (to be estimated or asked from interviewer):
- Distance determines length of pipeline: ~130 km offshore; 850 km onshore = ~980 km in total
- Pipe diameter = 48 inches (~1.2 meters)
- Piping cost (function of diameter and length of pipeline):
~50,000 EUR/inch km onshore; 70,000 EUR/inch km offshore - Compressor stations: EUR 40 million (one station every 200 km)
- Calculation:
- 130 km * 48 inches * 70,000 EUR/inch km = EUR 436.8 million
- 850 km * 48 inches * 50,000 EUR/inch km = EUR 2.04 billion
- Number of compressor stations needed: 980 km / 200 ~ 5
- 5 stations * EUR 40 million = EUR 200 million
- EUR 436.8 million + EUR 2.04 billion + EUR 200 million = ca. EUR 2.68 billion
OPEX Pipeline
- Inputs: ~3% of CAPEX per year (to be estimated or asked from interviewer)
- Calculation:
- EUR 2.68 billion *3% = ca. EUR 80 million per year
- EUR 80 million/year * 25 years = ca. EUR 2 billion
Production cost for natural gas
- Inputs: 12 ct/m3 (to be estimated or asked from interviewer)
- Calculation:
- 25 years * 10 bcm/year *12 ct/ m³ = ca. EUR 30 billion
Overall Profitability = Total Revenue – Total Cost = EUR 45 billion – EUR (2.68 + 2 + 30) billion = ca. EUR 10 billion
Potential Risks
Which risks do you see that could impact the feasibility of the project?
Candidates should conceptually brainstorm some additional factors that could affect the project and have a negative impact on its feasibility.
Potential risks impacting the feasibility could be:
- High financing costs not yet included in profitability analysis (equity plus interest on borrowed capital)
- Downward pressure on the sales price of natural gas (due to lower demand or increased supply)
- Taxation in the different countries
- Technical complications (particularly offshore)
- Regulatory and environmental risks (e.g. permitting)
- Political risks, especially since three different countries are involved
Commercial Feasibility of Natural Gas Pipeline