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Wieviele Berufseinsteiger gibt es in Deutschland jährlich?

Hi Leute, ich komme bei obigem Guesstimate nicht auf eine vernünftige Herleitung. Meine Überlegung so far:

- Es gibt insgesamt ca. 12 Mio. Leute zwischen 18 und 30

- diese können 3 Dinge tun: Arbeiten, in Ausbildung sein oder Arbeitslos sein

Das Beste was ich jetzt aber machen könnte ist, dass ich sage ich teile nochmal genauer ein und sage z.B. zwischen 18 und 22 gibt es halt 25% Berufseinsteiger und bei 23-26 vielleicht 35% etc. Aber das ist halt total angreifbar. Hat jemand einen TIpp und kann mir helfen?

Danke

Hi Leute, ich komme bei obigem Guesstimate nicht auf eine vernünftige Herleitung. Meine Überlegung so far:

- Es gibt insgesamt ca. 12 Mio. Leute zwischen 18 und 30

- diese können 3 Dinge tun: Arbeiten, in Ausbildung sein oder Arbeitslos sein

Das Beste was ich jetzt aber machen könnte ist, dass ich sage ich teile nochmal genauer ein und sage z.B. zwischen 18 und 22 gibt es halt 25% Berufseinsteiger und bei 23-26 vielleicht 35% etc. Aber das ist halt total angreifbar. Hat jemand einen TIpp und kann mir helfen?

Danke

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Hallo Anonym A,

aus meiner Sicht lässt sich der Brainteaser deutlich einfacher lösen:

  • Ansatz
    • In Deutschland leben ca 83 Mio (runden auf 80 Mio) Menschen
    • Die durchschnittliche Lebenserwartung beträgt 80 Jahre
    • Angenommen die demographische Verteilung ist gleich (vereinfacht) ergibt sich daraus, dass jedes Jahr potentiell 1 Mio Menschen anfangen könnten zu arbeiten
    • Die Arbeitslosenquote liegt bei ca 4% - also bleiben 960.000 Berufseinsteiger jährlich
  • Gegenprobe:
    • In Deutschland gibt es 44 Mio Erwerbstätige
    • Das durchschnittliche Arbeitsleben dauert ca. 45 Jahre
    • Bei angenommer gleicher demographischer Verteilung ergibt sich daraus, dass jedes Jahr ca. 977.000 Menschen aus dem Berufsleben ausscheiden bzw. eintreten
  • Zu bedenken:
    • Für eine genaue Zahl müssten hier u.a. noch die folgenden Punkte berücksichtigt werden, die die Zahl tendentiell verringern
      • Demographische Verteilung (zurückgehende Geburtenrate)
      • Arbeitslosenquote nach Altersgruppen
      • Anteil nicht arbeitstätiger Personen, die nicht in der Arbeitslosenstatistik erfasst sind
  • Anwort: Die Anzahl der Berufseinsteiger in Deutschland liegt jährlich bei ca. 900.000 - 950.000 Personen unter Annahme der oben genannten Faktoren

Hallo Anonym A,

aus meiner Sicht lässt sich der Brainteaser deutlich einfacher lösen:

  • Ansatz
    • In Deutschland leben ca 83 Mio (runden auf 80 Mio) Menschen
    • Die durchschnittliche Lebenserwartung beträgt 80 Jahre
    • Angenommen die demographische Verteilung ist gleich (vereinfacht) ergibt sich daraus, dass jedes Jahr potentiell 1 Mio Menschen anfangen könnten zu arbeiten
    • Die Arbeitslosenquote liegt bei ca 4% - also bleiben 960.000 Berufseinsteiger jährlich
  • Gegenprobe:
    • In Deutschland gibt es 44 Mio Erwerbstätige
    • Das durchschnittliche Arbeitsleben dauert ca. 45 Jahre
    • Bei angenommer gleicher demographischer Verteilung ergibt sich daraus, dass jedes Jahr ca. 977.000 Menschen aus dem Berufsleben ausscheiden bzw. eintreten
  • Zu bedenken:
    • Für eine genaue Zahl müssten hier u.a. noch die folgenden Punkte berücksichtigt werden, die die Zahl tendentiell verringern
      • Demographische Verteilung (zurückgehende Geburtenrate)
      • Arbeitslosenquote nach Altersgruppen
      • Anteil nicht arbeitstätiger Personen, die nicht in der Arbeitslosenstatistik erfasst sind
  • Anwort: Die Anzahl der Berufseinsteiger in Deutschland liegt jährlich bei ca. 900.000 - 950.000 Personen unter Annahme der oben genannten Faktoren

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