If we take average life expectancy as 80 and the number of people in US is 320 M..they calculate number of deaths every year as 320/80 (they assume every year 1/80 of the US pop is dying).,how did they land on 1/80 is dying?
(edited)
If we take average life expectancy as 80 and the number of people in US is 320 M..they calculate number of deaths every year as 320/80 (they assume every year 1/80 of the US pop is dying).,how did they land on 1/80 is dying?
(edited)
Hi!
There are two underlying assumptions:
1. Population growth is flat
2. Age distribution is even across the 80 years (the number of people in each of the 80 age brackets is 1/80*320m)
With these two assumptions, 1/80 of the population is born every year and replaces 1/80 of the population that dies every year.
Cheers, Sidi
Its a statistical assumption - if people live for 80 years then 'statistically' every year 1/80th population has to die.
As mentioned in the previous answer - usually fair assumptions during the cases (to be validated with the interviewer) are:
given that if the average life is 80 years, statistically you can imagine that when people turn 80 they die (an no one die earler or later) > 1/80 of the population is dying every year (replaced by the same amount of new born to keep the population constant)
Hi there,
Very important for you to understand churn/replacement rate as market sizing!
If the average lifespan is 80 years, then every year you have a 1/80th chance of dying. If you have 80 people, one of those people will die every year.
Hence, dividing 320M by the % of people that die each year!