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Anonymous A
on Aug 01, 2021
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Number of deaths per year

If we take average life expectancy as 80 and the number of people in US is 320 M..they calculate number of deaths every year as 320/80 (they assume every year 1/80 of the US pop is dying).,how did they land on 1/80 is dying?

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Sidi
Coach
on Aug 01, 2021
McKinsey Senior EM & BCG Consultant | Interviewer at McK & BCG for 7 years | Coached 400+ candidates secure MBB offers

Hi!

There are two underlying assumptions:

1. Population growth is flat

2. Age distribution is even across the 80 years (the number of people in each of the 80 age brackets is 1/80*320m)

With these two assumptions, 1/80 of the population is born every year and replaces 1/80 of the population that dies every year.

Cheers, Sidi

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Agrim
Coach
on Aug 02, 2021
#1 Awarded Coach | BCG Dubai Project Leader | Master Casing in only 3 Hours | 10y in Consulting | Free Intro Call

Its a statistical assumption - if people live for 80 years then 'statistically' every year 1/80th population has to die.

  • If less than 1/80th population dies - then some people would end up living longer than 80 years
  • If more than 1/80th population dies - then some people would live for much shorter
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Deleted user
on Aug 02, 2021

As mentioned in the previous answer - usually fair assumptions during the cases (to be validated with the interviewer) are:

  1. population is evenly distributed so: 1/80 of pop is 1-yr old, another 1/80 is 2-yr old, etc., till 1/80 of the population is 80-yr old
  2. population is not growing: the population remain constant at 320M 

given that if the average life is 80 years, statistically you can imagine that when people turn 80 they die (an no one die earler or later) > 1/80 of the population is dying every year (replaced by the same amount of new born to keep the population constant)

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Ian
Coach
on Aug 02, 2021
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

Hi there,

Very important for you to understand churn/replacement rate as market sizing!

If the average lifespan is 80 years, then every year you have a 1/80th chance of dying. If you have 80 people, one of those people will die every year.

Hence, dividing 320M by the % of people that die each year!

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